College production summary feeding the v3.0 similarity vector. The engine weights these features against the prospect corpus (2000–present) to build the comp grid below.
Historical college players whose production curves most closely match Caleb Williams. Hit-label colouring tags each comp's eventual NFL outcome: elite, starter, bust, unknown (still developing or never reached the NFL). Click an NFL name to jump to its veteran page when available.
| College player | School | Class | Similarity | NFL outcome | NFL career | Career fp | Peak3 fp/g | Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | Oklahoma | 2018 | 0.664 | elite | Baker Mayfield | 1932 | 18.3 | 8 |
| Tajh Boyd | Clemson | 2014 | 0.656 | unknown | Tajh Boyd | — | — | — |
| Deshaun Watson | Clemson | 2017 | 0.618 | elite | Deshaun Watson | 1440 | 22.9 | 7 |
| Braxton Miller | Ohio State | 2014 | 0.575 | unknown | Braxton Miller | — | — | — |
| Vince Young | Texas | 2006 | 0.557 | unknown | Vince Young | 637 | 11.8 | 6 |
| Sam Howell | North Carolina | 2022 | 0.522 | unknown | Sam Howell | 275 | 10.9 | 3 |
| Dak Prescott | Mississippi State | 2016 | 0.509 | elite | Dak Prescott | 2599 | 22.8 | 10 |
| Marcus Mariota | Oregon | 2015 | 0.476 | elite | Marcus Mariota | 1363 | 20.3 | 11 |
| Marquise Williams | North Carolina | 2016 | 0.471 | unknown | Marquise Williams | — | — | — |
| Jalen Milroe | Alabama | 2025 | 0.450 | unknown | Jalen Milroe | -2 | -0.5 | 1 |
| Graham Harrell | Texas Tech | 2009 | 0.442 | unknown | Graham Harrell | -2 | -0.5 | 1 |
| Denard Robinson | Michigan | 2013 | 0.432 | unknown | Denard Robinson | — | — | — |
| Geno Smith | West Virginia | 2013 | 0.411 | starter | Geno Smith | 1408 | 17.8 | 12 |
| Mason Rudolph | Oklahoma State | 2018 | 0.406 | unknown | Mason Rudolph | 296 | 10.9 | 6 |
| Ell Roberson | Kansas State | 2004 | 0.397 | unknown | Ell Roberson | — | — | — |
| James Franklin | Missouri | 2014 | 0.386 | unknown | James Franklin | — | — | — |
| Chase Daniel | Missouri | 2009 | 0.371 | unknown | Chase Daniel | 108 | 6.7 | 13 |
| Trevor Lawrence | Clemson | 2021 | 0.368 | starter | Trevor Lawrence | 1241 | 17.9 | 5 |
| Kliff Kingsbury | Texas Tech | 2003 | 0.352 | unknown | Kliff Kingsbury | 1 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Taylor Kelly | Arizona State | 2015 | 0.330 | unknown | Taylor Kelly | — | — | — |
| Andrew Luck | Stanford | 2012 | 0.324 | elite | Andrew Luck | 1687 | 21.0 | 6 |
| Jerrod Johnson | Texas A&M; | 2011 | 0.321 | unknown | Jerrod Johnson | — | — | — |
| Todd Reesing | Kansas | 2010 | 0.317 | unknown | Todd Reesing | — | — | — |
| Brett Hundley | UCLA | 2015 | 0.316 | bust | Brett Hundley | 129 | 4.3 | 3 |
| Justin Fields | Ohio State | 2021 | 0.311 | starter | Justin Fields | 915 | 17.8 | 5 |
Methodology details: v3.0 prospect engine — PR 3 similarity, PR 4 projection, PR 5 back-test.