Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | CLE | 14 | 310 | 486 | 63.8 | 3725 | 27 | 14 | 39 | 131 | 0 | 228.1 |
| 2019 | CLE | 16 | 317 | 534 | 59.4 | 3827 | 22 | 21 | 28 | 141 | 3 | 219.2 |
| 2020 | CLE | 16 | 305 | 486 | 62.8 | 3563 | 26 | 8 | 54 | 165 | 1 | 237.0 |
| 2021 | CLE | 14 | 253 | 418 | 60.5 | 3010 | 17 | 13 | 37 | 134 | 1 | 169.8 |
| 2022 | 2TM | 12 | 201 | 335 | 60.0 | 2163 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 0 | 108.2 |
| 2022 | CAR | 7 | 119 | 206 | 57.8 | 1313 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 37 | 0 | 62.2 |
| 2022 | LAR | 5 | 82 | 129 | 63.6 | 850 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 37 | 0 | 43.7 |
| 2023 | TAM | 17 | 364 | 566 | 64.3 | 4044 | 28 | 10 | 62 | 163 | 1 | 260.1 |
| 2024 | TAM | 17 | 407 | 570 | 71.4 | 4500 | 41 | 16 | 60 | 378 | 3 | 341.8 |
| 2025 | TAM | 16 | 327 | 521 | 62.8 | 3490 | 25 | 10 | 51 | 351 | 1 | 240.7 |
| Career | — | 134 | 2685 | 4251 | 63.2 | 30485 | 206 | 108 | 376 | 1574 | 10 | 1910.8 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | QB | 2005 | 0.782 | 18.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 1814 | 150 |
| Matt Ryan | QB | 2022 | 0.765 | 18.5 | 15 seasons · ended age 37 | 7 | 3815 | 1535 |
| Jake Plummer | QB | 2006 | 0.748 | 17.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 2163 | 355 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | QB | 2021 | 0.715 | 18.5 | 17 seasons · ended age 39 | 8 | 4082 | 1703 |
| Otto Graham ⏳ 1954 | QB | 1955 | 0.711 | 18.9 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 2153 | 206 |
| Joe Montana ⏳ 1986 | QB | 1994 | 0.703 | 21.1 | 13 seasons · ended age 38 | 6 | 3174 | 1332 |
| Eli Manning | QB | 2019 | 0.698 | 16.8 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 8 | 3331 | 1382 |
| Drew Brees | QB | 2020 | 0.695 | 23.6 | 19 seasons · ended age 41 | 11 | 5277 | 2600 |
| John Elway ⏳ 1990 | QB | 1998 | 0.680 | 20.0 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 8 | 4088 | 1806 |
| Dave Krieg ⏳ 1988 | QB | 1998 | 0.670 | 19.1 | 15 seasons · ended age 38 | 8 | 2802 | 1141 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 1,329.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.663
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 974 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 1,025. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,682 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 2,711 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,399 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(1,399 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 1,399 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.950 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 1,329 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.