Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | JAX | 17 | 359 | 602 | 59.6 | 3641 | 12 | 17 | 73 | 334 | 2 | 187.0 |
| 2022 | JAX | 17 | 387 | 584 | 66.3 | 4113 | 25 | 8 | 62 | 291 | 5 | 283.6 |
| 2023 | JAX | 16 | 370 | 564 | 65.6 | 4016 | 21 | 14 | 70 | 339 | 4 | 250.5 |
| 2024 | JAX | 10 | 172 | 284 | 60.6 | 2045 | 11 | 7 | 26 | 119 | 3 | 135.7 |
| 2025 | JAX | 14 | 273 | 457 | 59.7 | 3210 | 23 | 11 | 66 | 302 | 6 | 254.6 |
| Career | — | 74 | 1561 | 2491 | 62.7 | 17025 | 92 | 57 | 297 | 1385 | 20 | 1111.4 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | QB | 2022 | 0.736 | 18.5 | 15 seasons · ended age 37 | 11 | 3815 | 2273 |
| Peyton Manning | QB | 2015 | 0.717 | 22.1 | 17 seasons · ended age 39 | 12 | 5062 | 2745 |
| Steve Grogan ⏳ 1979 | QB | 1990 | 0.701 | 18.2 | 14 seasons · ended age 36 | 9 | 2291 | 863 |
| Fran Tarkenton ⏳ 1966 | QB | 1978 | 0.697 | 19.7 | 18 seasons · ended age 38 | 12 | 4047 | 2049 |
| Boomer Esiason ⏳ 1987 | QB | 1997 | 0.660 | 19.0 | 14 seasons · ended age 36 | 10 | 2779 | 1618 |
| Jim Everett ⏳ 1989 | QB | 1997 | 0.648 | 18.0 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 7 | 2255 | 1241 |
| Jay Cutler | QB | 2017 | 0.641 | 16.7 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 8 | 2305 | 1246 |
| Otto Graham ⏳ 1950 | QB | 1955 | 0.639 | 18.9 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 5 | 2153 | 961 |
| Doug Williams ⏳ 1981 | QB | 1989 | 0.632 | 18.4 | 7 seasons · ended age 33 | 3 | 1300 | 408 |
| Jim Zorn ⏳ 1979 | QB | 1987 | 0.630 | 17.0 | 9 seasons · ended age 32 | 5 | 1598 | 637 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 1,708.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.634
Comp pool washed-out rate: 10% (2/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 1,319 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 1,344. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 2,052 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 2,092 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,847 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.925 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(1,708 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 1,708 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 1,708 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.