Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | PIT | 10 | 176 | 283 | 62.2 | 1765 | 13 | 9 | 21 | 42 | 0 | 100.8 |
| 2020 | PIT | 5 | 25 | 43 | 58.1 | 324 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | 18.4 |
| 2021 | PIT | 2 | 35 | 58 | 60.3 | 277 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 16.4 |
| 2023 | PIT | 4 | 55 | 74 | 74.3 | 719 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 35.6 |
| 2024 | TEN | 8 | 146 | 228 | 64.0 | 1530 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 106 | 1 | 85.8 |
| 2025 | PIT | 3 | 14 | 18 | 77.8 | 139 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 9.5 |
| Career | — | 32 | 451 | 704 | 64.1 | 4754 | 29 | 20 | 72 | 202 | 1 | 266.5 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | QB | 2013 | 0.678 | 10.2 | 7 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 356 | 41 |
| Blaine Gabbert | QB | 2023 | 0.654 | 13.6 | 8 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 539 | 17 |
| Steve Beuerlein ⏳ 1995 | QB | 2003 | 0.627 | 18.4 | 13 seasons · ended age 38 | 7 | 1647 | 881 |
| Zeke Bratkowski ⏳ 1962 | QB | 1968 | 0.603 | 6.8 | 5 seasons · ended age 36 | 1 | 366 | 43 |
| Gary Hogeboom ⏳ 1988 | QB | 1990 | 0.577 | 12.1 | 6 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 591 | 170 |
| Steve Spurrier ⏳ 1975 | QB | 1976 | 0.559 | 9.2 | 5 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 442 | 92 |
| Billy Joe Tolliver ⏳ 1997 | QB | 2000 | 0.558 | 14.2 | 7 seasons · ended age 33 | 2 | 658 | 233 |
| Jack Trudeau ⏳ 1992 | QB | 1995 | 0.550 | 11.6 | 6 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 558 | 42 |
| Babe Parilli ⏳ 1960 | QB | 1967 | 0.548 | 18.1 | 12 seasons · ended age 37 | 7 | 1828 | 1204 |
| Brian Hoyer | QB | 2023 | 0.533 | 12.3 | 9 seasons · ended age 36 | 5 | 498 | 154 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 221.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.546
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 311 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 309. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 640 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 526 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 311 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.975 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.969 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(303 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 303 × 0.969) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.880 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.850 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 5 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 heavy-injury floor applied |
| = Final production score | 221 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.