Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | NYJ | 16 | 247 | 443 | 55.8 | 3046 | 12 | 21 | 72 | 366 | 6 | 184.4 |
| 2014 | NYJ | 14 | 219 | 367 | 59.7 | 2525 | 13 | 13 | 59 | 238 | 1 | 140.8 |
| 2015 | NYJ | 1 | 27 | 42 | 64.3 | 265 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 20.0 |
| 2016 | NYJ | 2 | 8 | 14 | 57.1 | 126 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 5.9 |
| 2017 | NYG | 2 | 21 | 36 | 58.3 | 212 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 9.7 |
| 2018 | LAC | 5 | 1 | 4 | 25.0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | -1.5 |
| 2020 | SEA | 1 | 4 | 5 | 80.0 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | -0.9 |
| 2021 | SEA | 4 | 65 | 95 | 68.4 | 702 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 1 | 54.3 |
| 2022 | SEA | 17 | 399 | 572 | 69.8 | 4282 | 30 | 11 | 68 | 366 | 1 | 295.9 |
| 2023 | SEA | 15 | 323 | 499 | 64.7 | 3624 | 20 | 9 | 37 | 155 | 1 | 218.5 |
| 2024 | SEA | 17 | 407 | 578 | 70.4 | 4320 | 21 | 15 | 53 | 272 | 2 | 248.0 |
| 2025 | LVR | 15 | 302 | 448 | 67.4 | 3025 | 19 | 17 | 41 | 109 | 0 | 165.9 |
| Career | — | 109 | 2023 | 3103 | 65.2 | 22168 | 124 | 89 | 357 | 1603 | 12 | 1341.0 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | QB | 2008 | 0.722 | 17.3 | 11 seasons · ended age 38 | 3 | 1928 | 288 |
| Phil Simms ⏳ 1989 | QB | 1993 | 0.708 | 16.1 | 13 seasons · ended age 39 | 4 | 2346 | 477 |
| Jon Kitna | QB | 2013 | 0.703 | 17.0 | 11 seasons · ended age 38 | 2 | 1931 | 208 |
| Ken Stabler ⏳ 1980 | QB | 1984 | 0.660 | 14.2 | 11 seasons · ended age 38 | 3 | 1705 | 275 |
| Trent Green | QB | 2008 | 0.603 | 18.7 | 9 seasons · ended age 37 | 2 | 1927 | 127 |
| Charley Johnson ⏳ 1973 | QB | 1975 | 0.594 | 17.7 | 11 seasons · ended age 37 | 2 | 1674 | 178 |
| Len Dawson ⏳ 1970 | QB | 1975 | 0.583 | 19.3 | 14 seasons · ended age 40 | 5 | 2307 | 444 |
| Kurt Warner | QB | 2009 | 0.575 | 21.7 | 10 seasons · ended age 38 | 3 | 2055 | 707 |
| Jim Plunkett ⏳ 1982 | QB | 1986 | 0.560 | 14.2 | 12 seasons · ended age 39 | 3 | 1812 | 412 |
| Joe Theismann ⏳ 1984 | QB | 1985 | 0.550 | 18.7 | 10 seasons · ended age 36 | 1 | 2015 | 127 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 447.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 21
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.545
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 341 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 330. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 641 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,096 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 470 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(470 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 470 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.950 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 447 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.