Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | CHI | 12 | 159 | 270 | 58.9 | 1870 | 7 | 10 | 72 | 420 | 2 | 112.8 |
| 2022 | CHI | 15 | 192 | 318 | 60.4 | 2242 | 17 | 11 | 160 | 1143 | 8 | 266.0 |
| 2023 | CHI | 13 | 227 | 370 | 61.4 | 2562 | 16 | 9 | 124 | 657 | 4 | 218.2 |
| 2024 | PIT | 10 | 106 | 161 | 65.8 | 1106 | 5 | 1 | 62 | 289 | 5 | 109.1 |
| 2025 | NYJ | 9 | 128 | 204 | 62.7 | 1259 | 7 | 1 | 71 | 383 | 4 | 130.7 |
| Career | — | 59 | 812 | 1323 | 61.4 | 9039 | 52 | 32 | 489 | 2892 | 23 | 836.8 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | QB | 2006 | 0.800 | 17.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 6 | 2163 | 1220 |
| Jay Cutler | QB | 2017 | 0.739 | 16.7 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 8 | 2305 | 1246 |
| Bernie Kosar ⏳ 1989 | QB | 1996 | 0.718 | 15.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 5 | 1490 | 536 |
| Drew Brees | QB | 2020 | 0.712 | 23.6 | 19 seasons · ended age 41 | 15 | 5277 | 3198 |
| Sam Bradford washed out | QB | 2018 | 0.706 | 14.4 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 1041 | 363 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | QB | 2021 | 0.700 | 18.5 | 17 seasons · ended age 39 | 12 | 4082 | 2302 |
| Joe Namath ⏳ 1969 | QB | 1977 | 0.699 | 15.8 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 7 | 1694 | 590 |
| Matt Ryan | QB | 2022 | 0.697 | 18.5 | 15 seasons · ended age 37 | 11 | 3815 | 2273 |
| Byron Leftwich washed out | QB | 2012 | 0.680 | 15.2 | 5 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 694 | 29 |
| Tony Banks washed out | QB | 2005 | 0.674 | 13.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 30 | 3 | 1082 | 314 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 995.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.681
Comp pool washed-out rate: 25% (5/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 1,097 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 1,142. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,702 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,283 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,409 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.820 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(1,156 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 1,156 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.861 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 9 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 injury-rate dampening (rate_ratio=0.89) |
| = Final production score | 995 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.