Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | TEN | 12 | 230 | 370 | 62.2 | 2818 | 19 | 10 | 34 | 252 | 2 | 185.9 |
| 2016 | TEN | 15 | 276 | 451 | 61.2 | 3426 | 26 | 9 | 60 | 349 | 2 | 249.9 |
| 2017 | TEN | 15 | 281 | 453 | 62.0 | 3232 | 13 | 15 | 60 | 312 | 5 | 208.5 |
| 2018 | TEN | 14 | 228 | 331 | 68.9 | 2528 | 11 | 8 | 64 | 357 | 2 | 158.8 |
| 2019 | TEN | 7 | 95 | 160 | 59.4 | 1203 | 7 | 2 | 24 | 129 | 0 | 79.0 |
| 2020 | LVR | 1 | 17 | 28 | 60.7 | 226 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 88 | 1 | 25.8 |
| 2021 | LVR | 10 | 1 | 2 | 50.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 87 | 1 | 12.9 |
| 2022 | ATL | 13 | 184 | 300 | 61.3 | 2219 | 15 | 9 | 85 | 438 | 4 | 182.6 |
| 2023 | PHI | 3 | 15 | 23 | 65.2 | 164 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 11.8 |
| 2024 | WAS | 3 | 34 | 44 | 77.3 | 364 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 92 | 1 | 45.8 |
| 2025 | WAS | 11 | 139 | 227 | 61.2 | 1695 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 297 | 1 | 117.5 |
| Career | — | 104 | 1500 | 2389 | 62.8 | 17879 | 107 | 62 | 425 | 2453 | 19 | 1278.5 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Plunkett ⏳ 1980 | QB | 1986 | 0.712 | 14.2 | 12 seasons · ended age 39 | 5 | 1812 | 560 |
| Gus Frerotte | QB | 2008 | 0.683 | 14.6 | 11 seasons · ended age 37 | 3 | 1293 | 335 |
| Jason Campbell | QB | 2014 | 0.675 | 14.6 | 9 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 1152 | 3 |
| Brian Griese | QB | 2008 | 0.641 | 17.4 | 10 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 1335 | 52 |
| Matt Cassel | QB | 2018 | 0.608 | 15.1 | 10 seasons · ended age 34 | 2 | 1113 | 71 |
| Bill Kenney ⏳ 1987 | QB | 1988 | 0.599 | 16.4 | 8 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 1118 | 17 |
| Jim McMahon ⏳ 1991 | QB | 1996 | 0.598 | 17.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 34 | 1 | 1495 | 128 |
| Billy Kilmer ⏳ 1971 | QB | 1978 | 0.595 | 13.8 | 13 seasons · ended age 38 | 6 | 1768 | 660 |
| Jeff George | QB | 2004 | 0.582 | 16.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 1725 | 86 |
| Ken O'Brien ⏳ 1991 | QB | 1993 | 0.557 | 16.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 1523 | 46 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 514.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.584
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 443 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 356. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 818 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,664 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 607 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(607 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 607 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.847 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 10 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) |
| = Final production score | 514 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.