Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | DAL | 16 | 311 | 459 | 67.8 | 3667 | 23 | 4 | 57 | 282 | 6 | 276.9 |
| 2017 | DAL | 16 | 308 | 490 | 62.9 | 3324 | 22 | 13 | 57 | 357 | 6 | 258.7 |
| 2018 | DAL | 16 | 356 | 526 | 67.7 | 3885 | 22 | 8 | 75 | 305 | 6 | 269.9 |
| 2019 | DAL | 16 | 388 | 596 | 65.1 | 4902 | 30 | 11 | 52 | 277 | 3 | 327.8 |
| 2020 | DAL | 5 | 151 | 222 | 68.0 | 1856 | 9 | 4 | 18 | 93 | 3 | 123.5 |
| 2021 | DAL | 16 | 410 | 596 | 68.8 | 4449 | 37 | 10 | 48 | 146 | 1 | 298.6 |
| 2022 | DAL | 12 | 261 | 394 | 66.2 | 2860 | 23 | 15 | 45 | 182 | 1 | 192.6 |
| 2023 | DAL | 17 | 410 | 590 | 69.5 | 4516 | 36 | 9 | 55 | 242 | 2 | 334.8 |
| 2024 | DAL | 8 | 185 | 286 | 64.7 | 1978 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 54 | 1 | 110.5 |
| 2025 | DAL | 16 | 397 | 589 | 67.4 | 4482 | 30 | 10 | 51 | 178 | 2 | 299.1 |
| Career | — | 138 | 3177 | 4748 | 66.9 | 35919 | 243 | 92 | 471 | 2116 | 31 | 2492.4 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | QB | 2010 | 0.716 | 23.0 | 19 seasons · ended age 41 | 9 | 5135 | 1741 |
| Steve McNair | QB | 2007 | 0.708 | 21.6 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 2 | 2785 | 240 |
| Dan Marino ⏳ 1993 | QB | 1999 | 0.706 | 21.8 | 17 seasons · ended age 38 | 6 | 4224 | 1184 |
| Donovan McNabb | QB | 2011 | 0.696 | 24.5 | 13 seasons · ended age 35 | 3 | 3154 | 494 |
| Peyton Manning | QB | 2015 | 0.690 | 22.1 | 17 seasons · ended age 39 | 6 | 5062 | 1533 |
| Mike Vick | QB | 2015 | 0.640 | 23.8 | 13 seasons · ended age 35 | 3 | 2581 | 206 |
| Drew Brees | QB | 2020 | 0.592 | 23.6 | 19 seasons · ended age 41 | 9 | 5277 | 2143 |
| Johnny Unitas ⏳ 1966 | QB | 1972 | 0.588 | 21.8 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 5 | 3028 | 554 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | QB | 2021 | 0.573 | 18.5 | 17 seasons · ended age 39 | 6 | 4082 | 1244 |
| Joe Montana ⏳ 1988 | QB | 1994 | 0.563 | 21.1 | 13 seasons · ended age 38 | 4 | 3174 | 908 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 1,104.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.570
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 810 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 906. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,396 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 2,452 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,162 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(1,162 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 1,162 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.950 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 1,104 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.