Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | BAL | 3 | 1 | 1 | 100.0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.9 |
| 2012 | BAL | 7 | 17 | 29 | 58.6 | 179 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 73 | 1 | 18.5 |
| 2013 | BAL | 3 | 1 | 5 | 20.0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 64 | 0 | 4.5 |
| 2014 | BAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 0 | -0.3 |
| 2015 | BUF | 14 | 242 | 380 | 63.7 | 3035 | 20 | 6 | 104 | 568 | 4 | 252.2 |
| 2016 | BUF | 15 | 269 | 436 | 61.7 | 3023 | 17 | 6 | 95 | 580 | 6 | 262.9 |
| 2017 | BUF | 15 | 263 | 420 | 62.6 | 2799 | 14 | 4 | 84 | 427 | 4 | 218.7 |
| 2018 | CLE | 4 | 42 | 85 | 49.4 | 473 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 125 | 1 | 35.4 |
| 2019 | LAC | 8 | 4 | 6 | 66.7 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 6.0 |
| 2020 | LAC | 2 | 16 | 30 | 53.3 | 208 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 9.0 |
| 2021 | HOU | 6 | 91 | 150 | 60.7 | 966 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 151 | 3 | 75.7 |
| 2022 | NYG | 3 | 6 | 8 | 75.0 | 58 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 70 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 2023 | NYG | 11 | 116 | 180 | 64.4 | 1341 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 197 | 0 | 79.3 |
| 2024 | NYJ | 2 | 17 | 22 | 77.3 | 119 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 16.1 |
| 2025 | NYJ | 6 | 80 | 134 | 59.7 | 779 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 143 | 1 | 59.5 |
| Career | — | 100 | 1165 | 1886 | 61.8 | 13033 | 73 | 34 | 434 | 2424 | 20 | 1045.7 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | QB | 2008 | 0.642 | 14.6 | 11 seasons · ended age 37 | 1 | 1293 | 119 |
| Jon Kitna | QB | 2013 | 0.557 | 17.0 | 11 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 1931 | 170 |
| Charley Johnson ⏳ 1974 | QB | 1975 | 0.549 | 17.7 | 11 seasons · ended age 37 | 1 | 1674 | 52 |
| Ken Stabler ⏳ 1981 | QB | 1984 | 0.529 | 14.2 | 11 seasons · ended age 38 | 2 | 1705 | 162 |
| Earl Morrall ⏳ 1971 | QB | 1976 | 0.529 | 13.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 1191 | 117 |
| Brad Johnson | QB | 2008 | 0.519 | 17.3 | 11 seasons · ended age 38 | 2 | 1928 | 259 |
| Mike Tomczak | QB | 2000 | 0.510 | 12.7 | 10 seasons · ended age 37 | 0 | 998 | 0 |
| Len Dawson ⏳ 1971 | QB | 1975 | 0.495 | 19.3 | 14 seasons · ended age 40 | 4 | 2307 | 300 |
| Jim Plunkett ⏳ 1983 | QB | 1986 | 0.479 | 14.2 | 12 seasons · ended age 39 | 2 | 1812 | 222 |
| Kurt Warner | QB | 2009 | 0.478 | 21.7 | 10 seasons · ended age 38 | 2 | 2055 | 505 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 256.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 17
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.475
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/17)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 252 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 252. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 474 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 262 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 376 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(376 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 376 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.800 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.850 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 6 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 heavy-injury floor applied |
| = Final production score | 256 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.