Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | SEA | 16 | 69 | 51 | 664 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 151.4 |
| 2016 | SEA | 15 | 66 | 41 | 597 | 1 | 6 | 114 | 124.1 |
| 2017 | SEA | 16 | 71 | 45 | 555 | 2 | 10 | 58 | 118.3 |
| 2018 | SEA | 16 | 70 | 57 | 965 | 10 | 13 | 69 | 216.4 |
| 2019 | SEA | 16 | 110 | 82 | 1057 | 8 | 4 | -5 | 233.2 |
| 2020 | SEA | 16 | 132 | 100 | 1054 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 263.4 |
| 2021 | SEA | 16 | 107 | 73 | 1175 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 239.4 |
| 2022 | SEA | 16 | 117 | 84 | 1033 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 237.3 |
| 2023 | SEA | 17 | 122 | 79 | 894 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 198.4 |
| 2024 | SEA | 17 | 74 | 49 | 600 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 121.0 |
| 2025 | 2TM | 15 | 47 | 29 | 277 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56.7 |
| 2025 | TEN | 7 | 21 | 10 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.0 |
| 2025 | LVR | 8 | 26 | 19 | 207 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39.7 |
| Career | — | 191 | 1032 | 719 | 9148 | 61 | 40 | 265 | 2016.3 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | WR | 2015 | 0.702 | 16.4 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 1 | 1940 | 21 |
| Isaac Bruce | WR | 2009 | 0.684 | 13.1 | 16 seasons · ended age 37 | 4 | 2329 | 484 |
| Santana Moss | WR | 2014 | 0.673 | 12.5 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 2 | 1837 | 107 |
| Brandon Marshall | WR | 2018 | 0.655 | 16.3 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 1 | 2399 | 28 |
| A.J. Green | WR | 2022 | 0.631 | 16.3 | 11 seasons · ended age 34 | 1 | 2002 | 60 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | WR | 2021 | 0.622 | 14.4 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 1 | 1797 | 132 |
| Reggie Wayne | WR | 2014 | 0.614 | 15.2 | 14 seasons · ended age 36 | 3 | 2518 | 442 |
| DeSean Jackson | WR | 2022 | 0.613 | 12.9 | 14 seasons · ended age 36 | 3 | 1923 | 141 |
| Eric Moulds | WR | 2007 | 0.594 | 11.4 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 1 | 1553 | 58 |
| Steve Smith | WR | 2016 | 0.590 | 16.4 | 15 seasons · ended age 37 | 4 | 2603 | 574 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 392.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.606
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 244 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 241. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 515 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 194 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 392 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(392 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 392 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 392 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.