Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | BAL | 2 | 3 | 5 | 60.0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 2021 | BAL | 7 | 122 | 188 | 64.9 | 1081 | 3 | 4 | 47 | 294 | 2 | 80.6 |
| 2022 | BAL | 6 | 75 | 112 | 67.0 | 658 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 137 | 1 | 42.0 |
| 2023 | BAL | 5 | 21 | 37 | 56.8 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 55 | 0 | 25.6 |
| 2024 | MIA | 5 | 86 | 133 | 64.7 | 829 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 135 | 2 | 52.7 |
| 2025 | BAL | 4 | 36 | 47 | 76.6 | 319 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 91 | 0 | 25.9 |
| Career | — | 29 | 343 | 522 | 65.7 | 3105 | 12 | 10 | 157 | 735 | 5 | 229.7 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler washed out | QB | 2018 | 0.748 | 11.4 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 394 | 59 |
| Kyle Boller washed out | QB | 2011 | 0.741 | 12.0 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 581 | 50 |
| Ed Brown ⏳ 1960 | QB | 1964 | 0.666 | 13.0 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 1099 | 356 |
| Lamar McHan ⏳ 1959 | QB | 1963 | 0.649 | 11.2 | 7 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 757 | 83 |
| Dan Pastorini ⏳ 1976 | QB | 1983 | 0.648 | 10.0 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 5 | 1210 | 471 |
| Matt Moore | QB | 2020 | 0.636 | 12.2 | 7 seasons · ended age 35 | 3 | 440 | 113 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | QB | 2015 | 0.633 | 12.7 | 6 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 486 | 182 |
| Bart Starr ⏳ 1962 | QB | 1970 | 0.631 | 13.8 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 8 | 1846 | 1016 |
| Steve Bartkowski ⏳ 1979 | QB | 1986 | 0.610 | 16.3 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 7 | 1663 | 1023 |
| Derek Anderson | QB | 2018 | 0.609 | 13.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 33 | 2 | 626 | 65 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 235.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.621
Comp pool washed-out rate: 25% (5/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 434 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 476. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 872 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 711 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 456 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.720 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.844 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(328 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 328 × 0.844) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.850 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 5 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 heavy-injury floor applied |
| = Final production score | 235 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.