Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | CIN | 16 | 81 | 54 | 603 | 1 | 4 | 58 | 124.1 |
| 2017 | CIN | 10 | 32 | 22 | 225 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 56.5 |
| 2018 | CIN | 14 | 108 | 76 | 1028 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 221.1 |
| 2019 | CIN | 16 | 148 | 90 | 1046 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 222.9 |
| 2020 | CIN | 15 | 110 | 79 | 841 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 190.0 |
| 2021 | CIN | 16 | 94 | 67 | 828 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 180.0 |
| 2022 | CIN | 16 | 82 | 58 | 762 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 164.2 |
| 2023 | CIN | 17 | 98 | 67 | 667 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 146.8 |
| 2024 | TEN | 16 | 57 | 39 | 390 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 78.3 |
| Career | — | 136 | 810 | 552 | 6390 | 31 | 20 | 169 | 1383.9 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | WR | 2010 | 0.802 | 11.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 1368 | 171 |
| Dwayne Bowe | WR | 2015 | 0.791 | 13.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 1335 | 9 |
| Herman Moore | WR | 2002 | 0.757 | 14.3 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 1388 | 74 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | WR | 2021 | 0.717 | 14.4 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 4 | 1797 | 606 |
| Eric Moulds | WR | 2007 | 0.710 | 11.4 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 4 | 1553 | 463 |
| Amani Toomer | WR | 2008 | 0.710 | 10.8 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 4 | 1499 | 440 |
| Santana Moss | WR | 2014 | 0.709 | 12.5 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 5 | 1837 | 527 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | WR | 2009 | 0.703 | 11.4 | 14 seasons · ended age 36 | 6 | 1840 | 811 |
| Randall Cobb | WR | 2023 | 0.689 | 15.2 | 13 seasons · ended age 33 | 3 | 1602 | 187 |
| Greg Jennings | WR | 2015 | 0.687 | 13.9 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 1568 | 188 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 263.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.703
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 303 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 291. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 563 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 380 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 376 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(376 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 376 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.700 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2025 season entirely (last played 2024) |
| = Final production score | 263 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.