Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | ATL | 16 | 210 | 1035 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 139 | 1 | 157.4 |
| 2023 | ATL | 17 | 186 | 683 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 193 | 1 | 135.6 |
| 2024 | ATL | 17 | 137 | 644 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 88 | 0 | 104.2 |
| 2025 | ATL | 16 | 136 | 498 | 8 | 14 | 13 | 93 | 0 | 120.1 |
| Career | — | 66 | 669 | 2860 | 18 | 67 | 60 | 513 | 2 | 517.3 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Richard washed out | RB | 2021 | 0.820 | 6.8 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 3 | 472 | 139 |
| James White washed out | RB | 2021 | 0.820 | 12.2 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 3 | 918 | 527 |
| Jerious Norwood washed out | RB | 2011 | 0.787 | 8.3 | 5 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 439 | 71 |
| William Green washed out | RB | 2005 | 0.781 | 7.7 | 4 seasons · ended age 26 | 1 | 299 | 15 |
| Jamel White washed out | RB | 2005 | 0.769 | 8.1 | 5 seasons · ended age 26 | 1 | 416 | 14 |
| Peyton Barber washed out | RB | 2021 | 0.765 | 7.6 | 6 seasons · ended age 27 | 2 | 488 | 102 |
| Randy McMillan ⏳ 1983 washed out | RB | 1986 | 0.756 | 8.6 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 3 | 724 | 364 |
| Brad Baxter ⏳ 1992 washed out | RB | 1995 | 0.756 | 7.7 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 3 | 570 | 221 |
| Matt Breida washed out | RB | 2023 | 0.742 | 8.4 | 7 seasons · ended age 28 | 3 | 550 | 144 |
| Felix Jones washed out | RB | 2013 | 0.741 | 9.7 | 6 seasons · ended age 26 | 1 | 609 | 32 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 108.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.754
Comp pool washed-out rate: 85% (17/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 309 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 263. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 426 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 589 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 309 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.348 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(108 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 108 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 108 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.