Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | MIN | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 |
| 2023 | MIN | 17 | 102 | 461 | 3 | 25 | 21 | 159 | 0 | 101.0 |
| 2024 | MIN | 17 | 56 | 182 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 28.4 |
| 2025 | MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Career | — | 38 | 164 | 663 | 3 | 31 | 27 | 201 | 0 | 131.4 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ogbonnaya washed out | RB | 2014 | 0.854 | 7.3 | 3 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 239 | 117 |
| J.J. Johnson washed out | RB | 2002 | 0.835 | 4.5 | 3 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 132 | 6 |
| Harvey Williams ⏳ 1992 | RB | 1998 | 0.823 | 10.9 | 7 seasons · ended age 31 | 5 | 761 | 599 |
| Troy Hambrick washed out | RB | 2004 | 0.815 | 7.2 | 4 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 309 | 178 |
| James Jackson washed out | RB | 2005 | 0.801 | 4.8 | 5 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 169 | 89 |
| Brian Leonard washed out | RB | 2014 | 0.793 | 4.5 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 320 | 133 |
| Junior Tautalatasi ⏳ 1987 washed out | RB | 1989 | 0.777 | 3.6 | 3 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 146 | 25 |
| Jason Wright washed out | RB | 2010 | 0.774 | 4.3 | 5 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 206 | 43 |
| Bernard Scott washed out | RB | 2013 | 0.770 | 4.5 | 3 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 164 | 72 |
| Patrick Cobbs washed out | RB | 2011 | 0.756 | 3.6 | 4 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 128 | 30 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 29.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.771
Comp pool washed-out rate: 90% (18/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 130 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 111. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 210 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 182 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 130 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.315 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(41 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 41 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.700 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2025 season entirely (last played 2024) |
| = Final production score | 29 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.