Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | MIA | 10 | 186 | 290 | 64.1 | 1814 | 11 | 5 | 36 | 109 | 3 | 133.5 |
| 2021 | MIA | 13 | 263 | 388 | 67.8 | 2653 | 16 | 10 | 42 | 128 | 3 | 162.9 |
| 2022 | MIA | 13 | 259 | 400 | 64.8 | 3548 | 25 | 8 | 23 | 70 | 0 | 220.9 |
| 2023 | MIA | 17 | 388 | 560 | 69.3 | 4624 | 29 | 14 | 35 | 74 | 0 | 254.4 |
| 2024 | MIA | 11 | 291 | 399 | 72.9 | 2867 | 19 | 7 | 17 | 49 | 0 | 167.6 |
| 2025 | MIA | 14 | 260 | 384 | 67.7 | 2660 | 20 | 15 | 20 | 43 | 0 | 144.7 |
| Career | — | 78 | 1647 | 2421 | 68.0 | 18166 | 120 | 59 | 173 | 473 | 6 | 1084.0 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Namath ⏳ 1970 | QB | 1977 | 0.748 | 15.8 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 6 | 1694 | 559 |
| Jay Cutler | QB | 2017 | 0.727 | 16.7 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 7 | 2305 | 1058 |
| Jake Plummer | QB | 2006 | 0.726 | 17.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 5 | 2163 | 1030 |
| Drew Bledsoe | QB | 2006 | 0.725 | 16.9 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 6 | 2881 | 1112 |
| Bernie Kosar ⏳ 1990 | QB | 1996 | 0.702 | 15.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 1490 | 422 |
| Drew Brees | QB | 2020 | 0.698 | 23.6 | 19 seasons · ended age 41 | 14 | 5277 | 3085 |
| Jim Zorn ⏳ 1980 | QB | 1987 | 0.686 | 17.0 | 9 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 1598 | 424 |
| David Carr washed out | QB | 2012 | 0.681 | 13.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 1041 | 62 |
| Ken Anderson ⏳ 1976 | QB | 1984 | 0.669 | 18.5 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 8 | 2574 | 1224 |
| Tony Banks washed out | QB | 2005 | 0.666 | 13.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 1082 | 225 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 1,104.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.674
Comp pool washed-out rate: 15% (3/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 892 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 892. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,486 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,530 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,174 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.940 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(1,103 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 1,103 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 1,104 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.