Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DEN | 16 | 53 | 28 | 263 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 67.1 |
| 2025 | DEN | 14 | 94 | 57 | 626 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 154.8 |
| Career | — | 30 | 147 | 85 | 889 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 221.9 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston washed out | WR | 2007 | 0.952 | 11.5 | 5 seasons · ended age 25 | 3 | 674 | 419 |
| Koren Robinson | WR | 2008 | 0.909 | 9.3 | 8 seasons · ended age 28 | 6 | 638 | 356 |
| Donte Moncrief washed out | WR | 2020 | 0.886 | 8.7 | 7 seasons · ended age 27 | 5 | 533 | 275 |
| Kenny Stills | WR | 2021 | 0.850 | 9.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 29 | 7 | 938 | 601 |
| Calvin Johnson | WR | 2015 | 0.756 | 19.4 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 8 | 2128 | 1669 |
| Roy Williams | WR | 2011 | 0.753 | 13.0 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 7 | 1048 | 809 |
| Lee Evans | WR | 2011 | 0.753 | 11.2 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 7 | 1071 | 831 |
| Denarius Moore washed out | WR | 2015 | 0.753 | 9.6 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 4 | 416 | 286 |
| Kevin Johnson washed out | WR | 2005 | 0.752 | 8.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 6 | 730 | 526 |
| Marlon Brown washed out | WR | 2018 | 0.751 | 5.3 | 3 seasons · ended age 24 | 2 | 192 | 65 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 492.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.776
Comp pool washed-out rate: 45% (9/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 755 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 689. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 911 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 540 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 755 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.651 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(492 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 492 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 492 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.