Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ARI | 13 | 63 | 291 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 59 | 0 | 45.0 |
| 2025 | ARI | 4 | 29 | 160 | 0 | 16 | 13 | 64 | 0 | 35.4 |
| Career | — | 17 | 92 | 451 | 1 | 22 | 19 | 123 | 0 | 80.4 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Zellars ⏳ 1996 washed out | RB | 1998 | 0.785 | 6.2 | 4 seasons · ended age 25 | 2 | 257 | 145 |
| Horace King ⏳ 1976 washed out | RB | 1983 | 0.779 | 8.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 28 | 5 | 500 | 366 |
| Theo Riddick washed out | RB | 2020 | 0.775 | 10.6 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 5 | 664 | 515 |
| Mike Goodson washed out | RB | 2013 | 0.769 | 6.1 | 4 seasons · ended age 25 | 2 | 203 | 61 |
| Brandon Bolden | RB | 2023 | 0.766 | 5.1 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 9 | 454 | 267 |
| Rashaad Penny washed out | RB | 2023 | 0.763 | 11.6 | 4 seasons · ended age 26 | 2 | 318 | 171 |
| Darrell Henderson washed out | RB | 2023 | 0.752 | 10.9 | 5 seasons · ended age 26 | 3 | 432 | 272 |
| Shaud Williams washed out | RB | 2007 | 0.736 | 3.1 | 3 seasons · ended age 26 | 2 | 74 | 44 |
| Evan Royster washed out | RB | 2013 | 0.731 | 3.8 | 3 seasons · ended age 26 | 2 | 94 | 48 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | RB | 2015 | 0.716 | 14.9 | 8 seasons · ended age 29 | 5 | 1064 | 763 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 69.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.730
Comp pool washed-out rate: 85% (17/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 346 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 334. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 585 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 254 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 346 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.370 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.533 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(128 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 128 × 0.533) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.964 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 4 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 injury-rate dampening (rate_ratio=2.26) |
| = Final production score | 69 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.