Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | NOR | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 |
| 2021 | NOR | 11 | 54 | 142 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 22.1 |
| 2022 | 2TM | 6 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 10.4 |
| 2022 | NOR | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 2022 | SEA | 4 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 6.4 |
| 2023 | 2TM | 7 | 26 | 95 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 32.2 |
| 2023 | NOR | 4 | 21 | 70 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 25.1 |
| 2023 | ARI | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 7.1 |
| 2024 | ARI | 1 | 4 | 55 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.5 |
| Career | — | 39 | 133 | 448 | 5 | 44 | 29 | 163 | 0 | 120.1 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | RB | 2022 | 0.899 | 8.5 | 9 seasons · ended age 32 | 6 | 664 | 485 |
| Lance Ball washed out | RB | 2012 | 0.822 | 4.5 | 3 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 142 | 41 |
| Artose Pinner washed out | RB | 2007 | 0.821 | 5.2 | 4 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 176 | 133 |
| Cedric Peerman washed out | RB | 2017 | 0.817 | 1.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 30 | 4 | 64 | 12 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne washed out | RB | 2018 | 0.811 | 4.2 | 3 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 67 | 33 |
| Jonathan Grimes washed out | RB | 2016 | 0.808 | 4.6 | 3 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 134 | 29 |
| Matt Asiata washed out | RB | 2016 | 0.800 | 9.1 | 5 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 399 | 342 |
| D.J. Ware washed out | RB | 2012 | 0.799 | 3.2 | 4 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 125 | 28 |
| Leon Johnson washed out | RB | 2004 | 0.788 | 4.0 | 5 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 208 | 60 |
| Kenjon Barner | RB | 2022 | 0.775 | 2.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 31 | 5 | 97 | 68 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 23.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.789
Comp pool washed-out rate: 85% (17/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 113 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 131. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 214 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 129 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 113 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.304 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.533 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(34 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 34 × 0.533) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.450 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2 full seasons (last played 2023) |
| = Final production score | 23 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.