Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | HOU | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100.0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.6 |
| 2018 | CAR | 6 | 35 | 57 | 61.4 | 320 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 11.9 |
| 2020 | WAS | 1 | 12 | 19 | 63.2 | 137 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 11.7 |
| 2021 | WAS | 16 | 321 | 494 | 65.0 | 3419 | 20 | 15 | 60 | 313 | 1 | 210.1 |
| 2022 | WAS | 9 | 161 | 259 | 62.2 | 1859 | 12 | 6 | 28 | 96 | 1 | 112.0 |
| 2023 | ATL | 5 | 74 | 136 | 54.4 | 890 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 124 | 1 | 64.0 |
| 2024 | LAC | 4 | 3 | 5 | 60.0 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 3.1 |
| Career | — | 42 | 607 | 971 | 62.5 | 6663 | 39 | 28 | 114 | 608 | 3 | 413.4 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | QB | 2015 | 0.591 | 12.7 | 6 seasons · ended age 32 | 0 | 486 | 0 |
| Billy Kilmer ⏳ 1970 | QB | 1978 | 0.575 | 13.8 | 13 seasons · ended age 38 | 7 | 1768 | 781 |
| Billy Volek | QB | 2011 | 0.569 | 13.0 | 5 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 280 | 10 |
| Brian Hoyer | QB | 2023 | 0.560 | 12.3 | 9 seasons · ended age 36 | 4 | 498 | 88 |
| Charlie Batch | QB | 2012 | 0.537 | 14.2 | 6 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 736 | 12 |
| Craig Morton ⏳ 1974 | QB | 1982 | 0.514 | 14.2 | 13 seasons · ended age 38 | 7 | 1829 | 916 |
| Derek Anderson | QB | 2018 | 0.504 | 13.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 626 | 14 |
| Jim Plunkett ⏳ 1977 | QB | 1986 | 0.493 | 14.2 | 12 seasons · ended age 39 | 6 | 1812 | 729 |
| Kent Graham | QB | 2002 | 0.491 | 12.3 | 5 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 513 | 41 |
| Matt Moore | QB | 2020 | 0.491 | 12.2 | 7 seasons · ended age 35 | 2 | 440 | 70 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 190.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.501
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 310 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 278. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 680 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 328 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 350 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.967 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(339 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 339 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.800 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.700 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2025 season entirely (last played 2024) |
| = Final production score | 190 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.