Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | MIN | 12 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 |
| Career | — | 12 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | WR | 2018 | 0.992 | 12.8 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 10 | 1466 | 1194 |
| Santana Moss | WR | 2014 | 0.945 | 12.5 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 13 | 1837 | 1405 |
| Racey McMath washed out | WR | 2023 | 0.992 | 1.6 | 2 seasons · ended age 23 | 1 | 9 | 6 |
| Amari Rodgers washed out | WR | 2023 | 0.973 | 2.9 | 2 seasons · ended age 23 | 1 | 53 | 43 |
| Steve Smith | WR | 2016 | 0.832 | 16.4 | 15 seasons · ended age 37 | 14 | 2603 | 1917 |
| Kevin Walter | WR | 2013 | 0.987 | 9.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 9 | 833 | 653 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | WR | 2015 | 0.924 | 11.5 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 11 | 1234 | 982 |
| Miles Austin | WR | 2015 | 0.920 | 13.7 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 9 | 990 | 818 |
| Jerry Porter | WR | 2008 | 0.948 | 9.6 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 7 | 703 | 598 |
| Antonio Gandy-Golden washed out | WR | 2021 | 0.924 | 0.9 | 1 seasons · ended age 22 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 418.
rookie_nfl_fp_arc
Projection path: rookie_comp_weighted
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.920
Comp pool washed-out rate: 45% (9/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 552 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 580. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 63 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 0 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 552 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.757 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.400 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(418 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 418 × 0.400) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.876 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 12 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) |
| = Final production score | 418 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.