Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | MIN | 13 | 84 | 52 | 720 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 145.3 |
| 2016 | MIN | 13 | 112 | 84 | 903 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 193.3 |
| 2017 | MIN | 14 | 95 | 64 | 849 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 198.2 |
| 2018 | MIN | 15 | 149 | 102 | 1021 | 9 | 10 | 62 | 264.3 |
| 2019 | MIN | 15 | 94 | 63 | 1130 | 6 | 5 | 61 | 210.1 |
| 2020 | BUF | 16 | 166 | 127 | 1535 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 328.6 |
| 2021 | BUF | 17 | 164 | 103 | 1225 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 283.5 |
| 2022 | BUF | 16 | 154 | 108 | 1429 | 11 | 1 | -3 | 314.6 |
| 2023 | BUF | 17 | 160 | 107 | 1183 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 269.8 |
| 2024 | HOU | 8 | 64 | 47 | 496 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 121.4 |
| 2025 | NWE | 15 | 93 | 76 | 869 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 180.9 |
| Career | — | 159 | 1335 | 933 | 11360 | 73 | 35 | 170 | 2510.0 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | WR | 2023 | 0.752 | 19.3 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 2 | 2449 | 105 |
| Andre Johnson | WR | 2016 | 0.739 | 17.7 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 3 | 2484 | 296 |
| Randy Moss | WR | 2012 | 0.716 | 16.7 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 2 | 2724 | 160 |
| Brandon Marshall | WR | 2018 | 0.705 | 16.3 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 2 | 2399 | 57 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR | 2020 | 0.659 | 16.8 | 17 seasons · ended age 37 | 5 | 3461 | 823 |
| Wes Welker | WR | 2015 | 0.643 | 16.4 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 2 | 1940 | 114 |
| Torry Holt | WR | 2009 | 0.641 | 15.7 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 2112 | 107 |
| Anquan Boldin | WR | 2016 | 0.637 | 15.7 | 14 seasons · ended age 36 | 4 | 2557 | 675 |
| Jerry Rice ⏳ 1994 | WR | 2004 | 0.621 | 17.1 | 19 seasons · ended age 42 | 9 | 3719 | 1303 |
| Reggie Wayne | WR | 2014 | 0.615 | 15.2 | 14 seasons · ended age 36 | 4 | 2518 | 590 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 641.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.607
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 370 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 388. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 821 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,613 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 641 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(641 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 641 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 641 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.