Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | NOR | 7 | 130 | 228 | 57.0 | 1317 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 146 | 0 | 63.3 |
| 2025 | NOR | 8 | 174 | 256 | 68.0 | 1586 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 167 | 0 | 94.1 |
| Career | — | 15 | 304 | 484 | 62.8 | 2903 | 12 | 10 | 49 | 313 | 0 | 157.4 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Concannon ⏳ 1968 washed out | QB | 1975 | 0.781 | 12.7 | 4 seasons · ended age 27 | 2 | 448 | 229 |
| Billy Joe Tolliver ⏳ 1990 | QB | 2000 | 0.756 | 14.2 | 7 seasons · ended age 33 | 5 | 658 | 388 |
| Trent Edwards washed out | QB | 2012 | 0.741 | 10.8 | 4 seasons · ended age 27 | 2 | 369 | 104 |
| Steve Beuerlein ⏳ 1989 | QB | 2003 | 0.728 | 18.4 | 13 seasons · ended age 38 | 11 | 1647 | 1090 |
| Quincy Carter washed out | QB | 2004 | 0.720 | 14.1 | 4 seasons · ended age 27 | 2 | 473 | 282 |
| Josh McCown | QB | 2020 | 0.692 | 15.6 | 10 seasons · ended age 39 | 8 | 1177 | 768 |
| J.P. Losman washed out | QB | 2011 | 0.690 | 11.3 | 4 seasons · ended age 27 | 2 | 421 | 118 |
| Joey Harrington washed out | QB | 2008 | 0.687 | 12.1 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 4 | 888 | 540 |
| Chad Henne | QB | 2022 | 0.684 | 12.7 | 6 seasons · ended age 36 | 4 | 693 | 346 |
| Drew Stanton | QB | 2020 | 0.684 | 8.7 | 5 seasons · ended age 33 | 4 | 214 | 140 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 126.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.696
Comp pool washed-out rate: 40% (8/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 449 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 438. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,303 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 682 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 472 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.547 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.500 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(258 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 258 × 0.500) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.975 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 9 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 injury-rate dampening (rate_ratio=1.09) |
| = Final production score | 126 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.