Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | DAL | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | DAL | 5 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.4 |
| 2023 | LAC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 2024 | LAC | 8 | 16 | 6 | 106 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16.6 |
| 2025 | ARI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Career | — | 25 | 22 | 10 | 139 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 29.9 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thomas washed out | WR | 2001 | 0.885 | 4.0 | 4 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 60 | 34 |
| Mike Furrey | WR | 2010 | 0.868 | 9.5 | 7 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 426 | 382 |
| C.J. Board washed out | WR | 2022 | 0.849 | 1.6 | 3 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 33 | 2 |
| Reggie Barlow washed out | WR | 2003 | 0.848 | 1.1 | 4 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 58 | 8 |
| Brittan Golden washed out | WR | 2019 | 0.848 | 1.5 | 4 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 48 | 11 |
| Marcus Thigpen washed out | WR | 2015 | 0.837 | 0.7 | 4 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 26 | -0 |
| Fabien Bownes washed out | WR | 2001 | 0.828 | 0.8 | 4 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Reggie Swinton washed out | WR | 2005 | 0.822 | 1.7 | 5 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 78 | 33 |
| Diontae Spencer washed out | WR | 2022 | 0.794 | 0.4 | 3 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Yo Murphy washed out | WR | 2002 | 0.792 | 1.1 | 3 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 11 | 6 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 12.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.788
Comp pool washed-out rate: 70% (14/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 61 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 44. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 62 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 46 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 61 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.334 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.433 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(20 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 20 × 0.433) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.850 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 7 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 heavy-injury floor applied |
| = Final production score | 12 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.