Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | CLE | 5 | 72 | 138 | 52.2 | 946 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 74 | 1 | 57.2 |
| Career | — | 5 | 72 | 138 | 52.2 | 946 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 74 | 1 | 57.2 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Mettenberger washed out | QB | 2016 | 0.912 | 8.7 | 2 seasons · ended age 24 | 1 | 122 | 44 |
| Jake Locker washed out | QB | 2014 | 0.902 | 14.3 | 4 seasons · ended age 26 | 3 | 408 | 341 |
| Troy Smith washed out | QB | 2010 | 0.886 | 14.4 | 3 seasons · ended age 26 | 2 | 144 | 98 |
| Mark Sanchez washed out | QB | 2018 | 0.879 | 17.3 | 5 seasons · ended age 28 | 4 | 943 | 740 |
| Donovan McNabb | QB | 2011 | 0.876 | 24.5 | 13 seasons · ended age 35 | 12 | 3154 | 2430 |
| Patrick Ramsey washed out | QB | 2010 | 0.872 | 12.7 | 4 seasons · ended age 26 | 3 | 382 | 272 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | QB | 2015 | 0.856 | 12.7 | 6 seasons · ended age 32 | 5 | 486 | 414 |
| David Blough washed out | QB | 2023 | 0.738 | 9.9 | 1 seasons · ended age 24 | 0 | 50 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart washed out | QB | 2012 | 0.778 | 9.3 | 4 seasons · ended age 26 | 3 | 207 | 57 |
| Quincy Carter washed out | QB | 2004 | 0.754 | 14.1 | 4 seasons · ended age 27 | 3 | 473 | 365 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 570.
rookie_nfl_fp_arc
Projection path: rookie_comp_pool_floor
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.786
Comp pool washed-out rate: 80% (16/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 475 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 525. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,064 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 0 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 828 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.329 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.250 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(272 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 272 × 0.250) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.818 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 8 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) |
| = Final production score | 570 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.