Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | NYG | 16 | 261 | 1307 | 11 | 121 | 91 | 721 | 4 | 383.8 |
| 2019 | NYG | 13 | 217 | 1003 | 6 | 73 | 52 | 438 | 2 | 242.1 |
| 2020 | NYG | 2 | 19 | 34 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 60 | 0 | 15.4 |
| 2021 | NYG | 13 | 162 | 593 | 2 | 57 | 41 | 263 | 2 | 146.6 |
| 2022 | NYG | 16 | 295 | 1312 | 10 | 76 | 57 | 338 | 0 | 280.0 |
| 2023 | NYG | 14 | 247 | 962 | 6 | 60 | 41 | 280 | 4 | 221.2 |
| 2024 | PHI | 16 | 345 | 2005 | 13 | 43 | 33 | 278 | 2 | 347.3 |
| 2025 | PHI | 15 | 261 | 1072 | 7 | 50 | 37 | 273 | 2 | 223.5 |
| Career | — | 105 | 1807 | 8288 | 55 | 489 | 358 | 2651 | 16 | 1859.9 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | RB | 2021 | 0.819 | 19.2 | 13 seasons · ended age 36 | 6 | 2738 | 757 |
| Edgerrin James | RB | 2009 | 0.782 | 21.0 | 11 seasons · ended age 31 | 3 | 2304 | 303 |
| Frank Gore | RB | 2020 | 0.724 | 18.3 | 16 seasons · ended age 37 | 9 | 3005 | 1216 |
| Chris Johnson | RB | 2017 | 0.695 | 19.4 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 1849 | 250 |
| Melvin Gordon | RB | 2023 | 0.672 | 19.0 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 1582 | 112 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | RB | 2014 | 0.667 | 18.7 | 9 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 1912 | 27 |
| LeSean McCoy | RB | 2020 | 0.667 | 20.0 | 12 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 2480 | 491 |
| Jamaal Charles | RB | 2018 | 0.666 | 21.2 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 1645 | 162 |
| Steven Jackson | RB | 2015 | 0.666 | 21.1 | 11 seasons · ended age 31 | 3 | 2370 | 459 |
| Clinton Portis | RB | 2010 | 0.663 | 17.7 | 9 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 1819 | 44 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 802.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.668
Comp pool washed-out rate: 5% (1/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 461 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 491. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,110 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,971 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 850 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.944 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(803 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 803 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 802 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.