Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | IND | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0.9 |
| 2022 | IND | 4 | 64 | 101 | 63.4 | 573 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 87 | 0 | 33.6 |
| 2023 | IND | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.0 |
| Career | — | 8 | 64 | 101 | 63.4 | 573 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 96 | 0 | 34.5 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Webb | QB | 2020 | 0.949 | 5.7 | 8 seasons · ended age 32 | 7 | 134 | 83 |
| T.J. Yates washed out | QB | 2017 | 0.899 | 8.2 | 3 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 107 | 52 |
| Steve Spurrier ⏳ 1969 | QB | 1976 | 0.815 | 9.2 | 5 seasons · ended age 31 | 4 | 442 | 364 |
| Cody Carlson ⏳ 1988 | QB | 1994 | 0.794 | 9.5 | 3 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 210 | 150 |
| A.J. Feeley | QB | 2011 | 0.792 | 9.9 | 3 seasons · ended age 34 | 2 | 207 | 142 |
| Luke McCown washed out | QB | 2016 | 0.759 | 9.2 | 3 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 120 | 82 |
| Trent Edwards washed out | QB | 2012 | 0.748 | 10.8 | 4 seasons · ended age 27 | 3 | 369 | 275 |
| Kellen Clemens washed out | QB | 2017 | 0.743 | 9.7 | 3 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 192 | 97 |
| Ryan Leaf washed out | QB | 2001 | 0.711 | 9.4 | 3 seasons · ended age 25 | 1 | 188 | 20 |
| Danny Wuerffel ⏳ 1998 washed out | QB | 2002 | 0.707 | 7.5 | 3 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 121 | 64 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 76.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.737
Comp pool washed-out rate: 50% (10/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 363 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 343. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,191 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 464 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 381 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.527 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.125 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(201 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 201 × 0.125) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.450 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 3 full seasons (last played 2022) |
| = Final production score | 76 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.