Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | NYJ | 13 | 239 | 414 | 57.7 | 2865 | 17 | 15 | 44 | 138 | 1 | 162.4 |
| 2019 | NYJ | 13 | 273 | 441 | 61.9 | 3024 | 19 | 13 | 33 | 62 | 2 | 167.2 |
| 2020 | NYJ | 12 | 217 | 364 | 59.6 | 2208 | 9 | 11 | 37 | 217 | 2 | 128.0 |
| 2021 | CAR | 12 | 243 | 406 | 59.9 | 2527 | 9 | 13 | 48 | 222 | 5 | 145.3 |
| 2022 | CAR | 6 | 82 | 140 | 58.6 | 1143 | 7 | 3 | 26 | 106 | 2 | 78.3 |
| 2023 | SFO | 10 | 28 | 46 | 60.9 | 297 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 15 | 1 | 19.4 |
| 2024 | MIN | 17 | 361 | 545 | 66.2 | 4319 | 35 | 12 | 67 | 212 | 1 | 300.0 |
| 2025 | SEA | 15 | 285 | 424 | 67.2 | 3703 | 24 | 13 | 26 | 84 | 0 | 210.5 |
| Career | — | 98 | 1728 | 2780 | 62.2 | 20086 | 122 | 81 | 302 | 1056 | 14 | 1211.1 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y.A. Tittle ⏳ 1954 | QB | 1964 | 0.730 | 20.0 | 17 seasons · ended age 38 | 10 | 2715 | 1295 |
| Bob Hoernschemeyer ⏳ 1952 | QB | 1954 | 0.696 | 17.3 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 1534 | 321 |
| Terry Bradshaw ⏳ 1976 | QB | 1983 | 0.655 | 16.8 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 6 | 2500 | 1200 |
| Dan Fouts ⏳ 1979 | QB | 1987 | 0.639 | 20.9 | 15 seasons · ended age 36 | 8 | 2825 | 1586 |
| Alex Smith | QB | 2020 | 0.622 | 17.0 | 14 seasons · ended age 36 | 7 | 2420 | 1310 |
| Bernie Kosar ⏳ 1991 | QB | 1996 | 0.593 | 15.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 3 | 1490 | 204 |
| Roman Gabriel ⏳ 1968 | QB | 1977 | 0.591 | 19.1 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 7 | 2409 | 1113 |
| Drew Bledsoe | QB | 2006 | 0.577 | 16.9 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 5 | 2881 | 916 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | QB | 2021 | 0.566 | 18.5 | 17 seasons · ended age 39 | 10 | 4082 | 1995 |
| Frank Ryan ⏳ 1966 | QB | 1967 | 0.564 | 16.2 | 8 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 1354 | 162 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 1,019.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.563
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 877 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 853. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,221 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,960 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,019 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(1,019 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 1,019 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 1,019 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.