Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | SEA | 16 | 252 | 393 | 64.1 | 3118 | 26 | 10 | 94 | 489 | 4 | 269.6 |
| 2013 | SEA | 16 | 257 | 407 | 63.1 | 3357 | 26 | 9 | 96 | 539 | 1 | 260.2 |
| 2014 | SEA | 16 | 285 | 452 | 63.1 | 3475 | 20 | 7 | 118 | 849 | 6 | 303.9 |
| 2015 | SEA | 16 | 329 | 483 | 68.1 | 4024 | 34 | 8 | 103 | 553 | 1 | 328.3 |
| 2016 | SEA | 16 | 353 | 546 | 64.7 | 4219 | 21 | 11 | 72 | 259 | 1 | 246.7 |
| 2017 | SEA | 16 | 339 | 553 | 61.3 | 3983 | 34 | 11 | 95 | 586 | 3 | 321.9 |
| 2018 | SEA | 16 | 280 | 427 | 65.6 | 3448 | 35 | 7 | 67 | 376 | 0 | 281.5 |
| 2019 | SEA | 16 | 341 | 516 | 66.1 | 4110 | 31 | 5 | 75 | 342 | 3 | 314.6 |
| 2020 | SEA | 16 | 384 | 558 | 68.8 | 4212 | 40 | 13 | 83 | 513 | 2 | 351.8 |
| 2021 | SEA | 14 | 259 | 400 | 64.8 | 3113 | 25 | 6 | 43 | 183 | 2 | 230.8 |
| 2022 | DEN | 15 | 292 | 483 | 60.5 | 3524 | 16 | 11 | 55 | 277 | 3 | 216.7 |
| 2023 | DEN | 15 | 297 | 447 | 66.4 | 3070 | 26 | 8 | 80 | 341 | 3 | 242.9 |
| 2024 | PIT | 11 | 214 | 336 | 63.7 | 2482 | 16 | 5 | 43 | 155 | 2 | 170.8 |
| 2025 | NYG | 6 | 69 | 119 | 58.0 | 831 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 106 | 0 | 43.8 |
| Career | — | 205 | 3951 | 6120 | 64.6 | 46966 | 353 | 114 | 1042 | 5568 | 31 | 3583.5 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | QB | 2010 | 0.677 | 23.0 | 19 seasons · ended age 41 | 4 | 5135 | 812 |
| Tom Brady | QB | 2022 | 0.581 | 21.6 | 21 seasons · ended age 45 | 8 | 6073 | 1907 |
| Drew Brees | QB | 2020 | 0.548 | 23.6 | 19 seasons · ended age 41 | 4 | 5277 | 862 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | QB | 2021 | 0.514 | 18.5 | 17 seasons · ended age 39 | 2 | 4082 | 478 |
| John Elway ⏳ 1997 | QB | 1998 | 0.497 | 20.0 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 4088 | 230 |
| Eli Manning | QB | 2019 | 0.497 | 16.8 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 3331 | 48 |
| Carson Palmer | QB | 2017 | 0.485 | 16.2 | 14 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 2770 | 88 |
| Johnny Unitas ⏳ 1971 | QB | 1972 | 0.483 | 21.8 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 3028 | 59 |
| Vinny Testaverde | QB | 2007 | 0.476 | 19.5 | 19 seasons · ended age 44 | 6 | 3206 | 538 |
| Dave Krieg ⏳ 1995 | QB | 1998 | 0.454 | 19.1 | 15 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 2802 | 155 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 476.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 16
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.478
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/16)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 429 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 429. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 774 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 528 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 636 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(636 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 636 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.880 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.850 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 6 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 heavy-injury floor applied |
| = Final production score | 476 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.