Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | DEN | 14 | 130 | 521 | 5 | 20 | 14 | 72 | 0 | 101.3 |
| 2019 | DEN | 16 | 132 | 496 | 3 | 50 | 43 | 256 | 1 | 142.2 |
| 2020 | DEN | 16 | 35 | 170 | 0 | 13 | 12 | 81 | 0 | 37.1 |
| 2021 | 2TM | 15 | 56 | 169 | 0 | 16 | 10 | 77 | 0 | 34.6 |
| 2021 | CAR | 8 | 21 | 77 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 12.2 |
| 2021 | HOU | 7 | 35 | 92 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 62 | 0 | 22.4 |
| 2022 | HOU | 4 | 41 | 117 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 19.0 |
| 2023 | LAR | 14 | 77 | 319 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 46.2 |
| Career | — | 94 | 527 | 1961 | 10 | 125 | 96 | 609 | 1 | 415.0 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Gerhart washed out | RB | 2015 | 0.838 | 5.5 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 400 | 9 |
| Ron Dayne washed out | RB | 2007 | 0.828 | 10.9 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 593 | 243 |
| Benny Cunningham washed out | RB | 2018 | 0.815 | 5.0 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 312 | 4 |
| Travaris Cadet washed out | RB | 2018 | 0.801 | 5.7 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 252 | 32 |
| Robert Turbin washed out | RB | 2019 | 0.790 | 6.1 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 346 | 24 |
| Malcolm Brown washed out | RB | 2022 | 0.789 | 5.4 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 306 | 44 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | RB | 2018 | 0.786 | 7.7 | 8 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 642 | 73 |
| Justin Forsett | RB | 2016 | 0.785 | 11.8 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 4 | 827 | 407 |
| Mel Triplett ⏳ 1961 washed out | RB | 1962 | 0.784 | 6.0 | 7 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 417 | 37 |
| Jalen Richard washed out | RB | 2021 | 0.778 | 6.8 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 472 | 23 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 26.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.773
Comp pool washed-out rate: 65% (13/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 127 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 135. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 200 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 237 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 127 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.429 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(55 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 55 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.450 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2 full seasons (last played 2023) |
| = Final production score | 26 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.