Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | CHI | 17 | 101 | 54 | 734 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 142.9 |
| 2025 | CHI | 12 | 90 | 44 | 661 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 146.1 |
| Career | — | 29 | 191 | 98 | 1395 | 9 | 3 | 15 | 289.0 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Henry washed out | WR | 2009 | 0.894 | 9.9 | 5 seasons · ended age 26 | 3 | 376 | 141 |
| Dez Bryant | WR | 2020 | 0.887 | 16.6 | 9 seasons · ended age 32 | 7 | 1544 | 1112 |
| Santonio Holmes | WR | 2014 | 0.856 | 11.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 7 | 1065 | 694 |
| Andre Rison ⏳ 1990 | WR | 2000 | 0.815 | 12.7 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 10 | 1636 | 1121 |
| Germane Crowell washed out | WR | 2002 | 0.806 | 10.1 | 5 seasons · ended age 26 | 3 | 407 | 146 |
| Gene Washington ⏳ 1970 | WR | 1979 | 0.799 | 10.4 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 8 | 1022 | 653 |
| Andre Johnson | WR | 2016 | 0.784 | 17.7 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 12 | 2484 | 1715 |
| Kenny Britt | WR | 2017 | 0.784 | 9.5 | 8 seasons · ended age 29 | 6 | 863 | 523 |
| Michael Gallup washed out | WR | 2023 | 0.777 | 11.7 | 6 seasons · ended age 27 | 4 | 737 | 431 |
| Louis Lipps ⏳ 1985 | WR | 1992 | 0.768 | 9.5 | 8 seasons · ended age 29 | 6 | 920 | 518 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 413.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.786
Comp pool washed-out rate: 40% (8/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 603 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 605. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,013 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 735 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 661 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.659 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.967 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(435 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 435 × 0.967) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.981 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 12 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 injury-rate dampening (rate_ratio=1.41) |
| = Final production score | 413 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.