Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | DEN | 8 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 2019 | DEN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2020 | SFO | 9 | 9 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.1 |
| 2021 | SFO | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | MIA | 11 | 14 | 9 | 102 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 31.2 |
| 2023 | MIA | 10 | 12 | 9 | 121 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27.1 |
| 2024 | MIA | 8 | 9 | 7 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.6 |
| 2025 | WAS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Career | — | 55 | 46 | 32 | 374 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 85.4 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashied Davis | WR | 2011 | 0.830 | 3.7 | 7 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 204 | 29 |
| Alvis Whitted | WR | 2006 | 0.828 | 3.9 | 8 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 171 | 81 |
| Karl Williams | WR | 2004 | 0.805 | 3.5 | 9 seasons · ended age 33 | 3 | 282 | 53 |
| Dane Looker | WR | 2008 | 0.800 | 4.6 | 6 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 210 | 61 |
| Anthony Edwards ⏳ 1996 | WR | 1998 | 0.737 | 3.1 | 5 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 199 | 30 |
| Desmond Howard | WR | 2002 | 0.733 | 4.1 | 8 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 229 | 24 |
| Terrence Wilkins | WR | 2006 | 0.707 | 5.5 | 5 seasons · ended age 31 | 0 | 236 | 0 |
| Jerheme Urban | WR | 2011 | 0.705 | 6.2 | 6 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 230 | 13 |
| Theo Bell ⏳ 1983 | WR | 1985 | 0.693 | 4.0 | 5 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 252 | 41 |
| Pettis Norman ⏳ 1971 | WR | 1972 | 0.692 | 3.5 | 6 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 268 | 34 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 54.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.693
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 80 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 81. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 124 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 130 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 80 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.967 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(78 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 78 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.700 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2025 season entirely (last played 2024) |
| = Final production score | 54 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.