Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | NWE | 12 | 133 | 606 | 5 | 18 | 14 | 123 | 0 | 112.9 |
| 2022 | NWE | 17 | 210 | 1040 | 5 | 88 | 69 | 421 | 1 | 243.1 |
| 2023 | NWE | 12 | 156 | 619 | 4 | 51 | 38 | 238 | 0 | 145.7 |
| 2024 | NWE | 15 | 207 | 801 | 7 | 41 | 33 | 168 | 1 | 163.9 |
| 2025 | NWE | 14 | 130 | 603 | 7 | 37 | 32 | 345 | 2 | 174.8 |
| Career | — | 70 | 836 | 3669 | 28 | 235 | 186 | 1295 | 4 | 840.4 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | RB | 2006 | 0.869 | 13.6 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 3 | 1132 | 251 |
| Warrick Dunn | RB | 2008 | 0.855 | 13.5 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 6 | 2156 | 924 |
| Willis McGahee | RB | 2013 | 0.831 | 13.1 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 5 | 1566 | 570 |
| Pierre Thomas | RB | 2015 | 0.809 | 13.6 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 4 | 1214 | 459 |
| Corey Dillon | RB | 2006 | 0.806 | 14.9 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 5 | 1900 | 822 |
| Ryan Mathews washed out | RB | 2016 | 0.794 | 13.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 1060 | 264 |
| Carlos Hyde | RB | 2021 | 0.785 | 13.7 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 4 | 962 | 369 |
| James White washed out | RB | 2021 | 0.781 | 12.2 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 918 | 117 |
| Rudi Johnson washed out | RB | 2008 | 0.772 | 14.6 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 1031 | 150 |
| Delvin Williams ⏳ 1978 washed out | RB | 1981 | 0.766 | 13.0 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 918 | 222 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 456.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.775
Comp pool washed-out rate: 35% (7/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 418 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 374. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 751 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,087 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 543 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.841 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(456 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 456 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 456 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.