Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | SDG | 2 | 5 | 8 | 62.5 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 0 | 2.8 |
| 2005 | SDG | 2 | 12 | 22 | 54.5 | 115 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | -1.5 |
| 2006 | SDG | 16 | 284 | 460 | 61.7 | 3388 | 22 | 9 | 48 | 49 | 0 | 194.4 |
| 2007 | SDG | 16 | 277 | 460 | 60.2 | 3152 | 21 | 15 | 29 | 33 | 1 | 167.4 |
| 2008 | SDG | 16 | 312 | 478 | 65.3 | 4009 | 34 | 11 | 31 | 84 | 0 | 266.8 |
| 2009 | SDG | 16 | 317 | 486 | 65.2 | 4254 | 28 | 9 | 26 | 50 | 1 | 263.2 |
| 2010 | SDG | 16 | 357 | 541 | 66.0 | 4710 | 30 | 13 | 29 | 52 | 0 | 273.6 |
| 2011 | SDG | 16 | 366 | 582 | 62.9 | 4624 | 27 | 20 | 26 | 36 | 1 | 244.6 |
| 2012 | SDG | 16 | 338 | 527 | 64.1 | 3606 | 26 | 15 | 27 | 40 | 0 | 192.2 |
| 2013 | SDG | 16 | 378 | 544 | 69.5 | 4478 | 32 | 11 | 28 | 72 | 0 | 286.3 |
| 2014 | SDG | 16 | 379 | 570 | 66.5 | 4286 | 31 | 18 | 37 | 102 | 0 | 253.6 |
| 2015 | SDG | 16 | 437 | 661 | 66.1 | 4792 | 29 | 13 | 17 | 28 | 0 | 276.5 |
| 2016 | SDG | 16 | 349 | 578 | 60.4 | 4386 | 33 | 21 | 14 | 35 | 0 | 250.9 |
| 2017 | LAC | 16 | 360 | 575 | 62.6 | 4515 | 28 | 10 | 18 | -2 | 0 | 256.4 |
| 2018 | LAC | 16 | 347 | 508 | 68.3 | 4308 | 32 | 12 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 273.0 |
| 2019 | LAC | 16 | 390 | 591 | 66.0 | 4615 | 23 | 20 | 12 | 29 | 0 | 223.5 |
| 2020 | IND | 16 | 369 | 543 | 68.0 | 4169 | 24 | 11 | 18 | -8 | 0 | 236.0 |
| 2021 | Did not play - Retired (St. Michael Catholic HS head coach) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | Did not play - Retired (St. Michael Catholic HS head coach) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | Did not play - Retired (St. Michael Catholic HS head coach) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | Did not play - Retired (St. Michael Catholic HS head coach) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | IND | 3 | 58 | 92 | 63.0 | 544 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 27.7 |
| Career | — | 247 | 5335 | 8226 | 64.9 | 63984 | 425 | 212 | 385 | 600 | 3 | 3687.4 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | QB | 2007 | 0.534 | 19.5 | 19 seasons · ended age 44 | 4 | 3206 | 374 |
| Tom Brady | QB | 2022 | 0.527 | 21.6 | 21 seasons · ended age 45 | 6 | 6073 | 1530 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | QB | 2015 | 0.440 | 17.9 | 16 seasons · ended age 40 | 1 | 2382 | 82 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 307.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 3
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.500
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/3)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 694 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 694. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 958 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 2,076 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 852 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(852 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 852 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.800 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.450 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 5 full seasons (last played 2020) |
| = Final production score | 307 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.