Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | KAN | 1 | 22 | 35 | 62.9 | 284 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 10.4 |
| 2018 | KAN | 16 | 383 | 580 | 66.0 | 5097 | 50 | 12 | 60 | 272 | 2 | 401.1 |
| 2019 | KAN | 14 | 319 | 484 | 65.9 | 4031 | 26 | 5 | 43 | 218 | 2 | 283.0 |
| 2020 | KAN | 15 | 390 | 588 | 66.3 | 4740 | 38 | 6 | 62 | 308 | 2 | 362.4 |
| 2021 | KAN | 17 | 436 | 658 | 66.3 | 4839 | 37 | 13 | 66 | 381 | 2 | 347.7 |
| 2022 | KAN | 17 | 435 | 648 | 67.1 | 5250 | 41 | 12 | 61 | 358 | 4 | 399.8 |
| 2023 | KAN | 16 | 401 | 597 | 67.2 | 4183 | 27 | 14 | 75 | 389 | 0 | 276.2 |
| 2024 | KAN | 16 | 392 | 581 | 67.5 | 3928 | 26 | 11 | 58 | 307 | 2 | 277.8 |
| 2025 | KAN | 14 | 315 | 502 | 62.7 | 3587 | 22 | 11 | 64 | 422 | 5 | 275.7 |
| Career | — | 126 | 3093 | 4673 | 66.2 | 35939 | 267 | 85 | 496 | 2665 | 19 | 2634.1 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | QB | 2021 | 0.792 | 24.3 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 3056 | 343 |
| Brett Favre | QB | 2010 | 0.754 | 23.0 | 19 seasons · ended age 41 | 11 | 5135 | 2108 |
| Peyton Manning | QB | 2015 | 0.745 | 22.1 | 17 seasons · ended age 39 | 8 | 5062 | 1914 |
| Steve McNair | QB | 2007 | 0.744 | 21.6 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 4 | 2785 | 518 |
| Dan Marino ⏳ 1991 | QB | 1999 | 0.660 | 21.8 | 17 seasons · ended age 38 | 8 | 4224 | 1426 |
| Donovan McNabb | QB | 2011 | 0.655 | 24.5 | 13 seasons · ended age 35 | 5 | 3154 | 934 |
| Drew Brees | QB | 2020 | 0.611 | 23.6 | 19 seasons · ended age 41 | 11 | 5277 | 2600 |
| Tom Brady | QB | 2022 | 0.602 | 21.6 | 21 seasons · ended age 45 | 14 | 6073 | 3053 |
| Daunte Culpepper | QB | 2009 | 0.583 | 26.1 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 2250 | 101 |
| Johnny Unitas ⏳ 1964 | QB | 1972 | 0.582 | 21.8 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 7 | 3028 | 902 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 1,490.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.592
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 1,126 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 1,195. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,864 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 2,878 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,569 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(1,569 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 1,569 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.950 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 1,490 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.