Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | ATL | 10 | 5 | 3 | 115 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20.5 |
| 2020 | ATL | 11 | 32 | 20 | 274 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 53.4 |
| 2021 | ATL | 17 | 53 | 31 | 406 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 89.8 |
| 2022 | ATL | 17 | 61 | 40 | 533 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 110.0 |
| 2023 | PHI | 17 | 20 | 10 | 164 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 38.4 |
| 2024 | WAS | 17 | 64 | 45 | 506 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 108.4 |
| 2025 | CHI | 16 | 65 | 39 | 313 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 84.8 |
| Career | — | 105 | 300 | 188 | 2311 | 15 | 9 | 42 | 505.3 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Murphy | WR | 2017 | 0.890 | 6.4 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 442 | 24 |
| Jason Avant | WR | 2015 | 0.870 | 6.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 732 | 262 |
| Jabar Gaffney | WR | 2012 | 0.850 | 10.5 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 3 | 973 | 410 |
| Jarius Wright | WR | 2019 | 0.821 | 6.5 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 522 | 138 |
| Az-Zahir Hakim | WR | 2006 | 0.820 | 7.4 | 9 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 696 | 28 |
| Jacoby Jones | WR | 2015 | 0.812 | 6.5 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 3 | 497 | 102 |
| Bryant Johnson | WR | 2011 | 0.812 | 7.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 676 | 52 |
| Robert Ferguson washed out | WR | 2008 | 0.808 | 5.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 336 | 5 |
| Arnaz Battle | WR | 2011 | 0.800 | 8.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 3 | 414 | 8 |
| Josh Reed | WR | 2009 | 0.794 | 7.0 | 8 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 605 | 54 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 143.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.803
Comp pool washed-out rate: 25% (5/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 158 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 136. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 282 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 469 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 158 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.901 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(143 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 143 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 143 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.