Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | IND | 16 | 85 | 314 | 2 | 81 | 63 | 425 | 2 | 158.9 |
| 2019 | IND | 16 | 52 | 199 | 2 | 58 | 44 | 320 | 0 | 105.9 |
| 2020 | IND | 16 | 89 | 380 | 3 | 76 | 63 | 482 | 4 | 191.2 |
| 2021 | IND | 17 | 56 | 276 | 2 | 57 | 40 | 310 | 1 | 110.6 |
| 2022 | 2TM | 16 | 24 | 33 | 1 | 37 | 30 | 241 | 1 | 65.4 |
| 2022 | IND | 7 | 18 | 36 | 1 | 28 | 25 | 188 | 0 | 51.4 |
| 2022 | BUF | 9 | 6 | -3 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 53 | 1 | 14.0 |
| 2025 | 2TM | 4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | LAC | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | NOR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Career | — | 105 | 334 | 1231 | 11 | 346 | 270 | 2019 | 9 | 697.0 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | RB | 2014 | 0.750 | 8.8 | 9 seasons · ended age 32 | 3 | 636 | 72 |
| Ronnie Coleman ⏳ 1980 washed out | RB | 1981 | 0.690 | 9.5 | 7 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 560 | 43 |
| Michael Bennett | RB | 2010 | 0.676 | 10.5 | 9 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 692 | 22 |
| Jerick McKinnon | RB | 2023 | 0.663 | 9.7 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 912 | 276 |
| Anthony Thomas washed out | RB | 2007 | 0.654 | 11.4 | 7 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 651 | 39 |
| Nick Goings | RB | 2008 | 0.652 | 6.4 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 348 | 4 |
| Jon Keyworth ⏳ 1979 washed out | RB | 1980 | 0.624 | 8.1 | 7 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 576 | 35 |
| Ladell Betts | RB | 2010 | 0.608 | 9.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 749 | 127 |
| Matt Suhey ⏳ 1986 washed out | RB | 1989 | 0.603 | 9.3 | 7 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 717 | 60 |
| Dexter Bussey ⏳ 1981 | RB | 1984 | 0.595 | 9.8 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 837 | 72 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 65.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.615
Comp pool washed-out rate: 35% (7/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 114 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 115. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 230 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 93 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 114 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.673 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(76 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 76 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.850 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 4 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 heavy-injury floor applied |
| = Final production score | 65 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.