Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | DEN | 16 | 66 | 40 | 562 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 111.0 |
| 2020 | DEN | 15 | 93 | 62 | 673 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 147.3 |
| 2021 | DEN | 16 | 90 | 68 | 670 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 159.0 |
| 2022 | SEA | 17 | 63 | 50 | 486 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 122.6 |
| 2023 | SEA | 17 | 43 | 32 | 414 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 73.4 |
| 2024 | SEA | 14 | 64 | 48 | 500 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 104.0 |
| 2025 | CIN | 15 | 41 | 34 | 288 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 74.8 |
| Career | — | 110 | 460 | 334 | 3593 | 18 | 3 | -12 | 792.1 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Scheffler | TE | 2013 | 0.875 | 9.6 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 714 | 114 |
| Randy McMichael | TE | 2012 | 0.846 | 9.3 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 5 | 979 | 206 |
| Jared Cook | TE | 2021 | 0.835 | 10.4 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 6 | 1508 | 691 |
| Freddie Jones | TE | 2004 | 0.827 | 8.2 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 833 | 192 |
| L.J. Smith washed out | TE | 2009 | 0.818 | 8.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 579 | 5 |
| Jermaine Gresham | TE | 2018 | 0.803 | 9.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 915 | 89 |
| Frank Wycheck | TE | 2003 | 0.797 | 8.7 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 1044 | 375 |
| Charles Clay | TE | 2019 | 0.797 | 10.3 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 868 | 80 |
| Bob Trumpy ⏳ 1973 | TE | 1977 | 0.793 | 8.5 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 847 | 217 |
| Steve Jordan ⏳ 1989 | TE | 1994 | 0.787 | 8.7 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 1125 | 369 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 242.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.774
Comp pool washed-out rate: 5% (1/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 252 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 263. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 447 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 777 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 302 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.900 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(272 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 272 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.891 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 13 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) |
| = Final production score | 242 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.