Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | CLE | 16 | 192 | 996 | 8 | 29 | 20 | 149 | 2 | 194.5 |
| 2019 | CLE | 16 | 298 | 1494 | 8 | 49 | 36 | 278 | 0 | 255.2 |
| 2020 | CLE | 12 | 190 | 1067 | 12 | 18 | 16 | 150 | 0 | 207.7 |
| 2021 | CLE | 14 | 228 | 1259 | 8 | 25 | 20 | 174 | 1 | 213.3 |
| 2022 | CLE | 17 | 302 | 1525 | 12 | 37 | 27 | 239 | 1 | 279.4 |
| 2023 | CLE | 2 | 28 | 170 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 23.1 |
| 2024 | CLE | 8 | 102 | 332 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 63.3 |
| 2025 | HOU | 15 | 122 | 506 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 67 | 0 | 88.3 |
| Career | — | 100 | 1462 | 7349 | 54 | 193 | 141 | 1109 | 5 | 1324.8 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | RB | 2016 | 0.667 | 16.2 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 3 | 1645 | 330 |
| Eddie George | RB | 2004 | 0.666 | 16.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 1772 | 75 |
| Billy Cannon ⏳ 1968 | RB | 1969 | 0.656 | 14.0 | 7 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 990 | 49 |
| Ricky Williams | RB | 2011 | 0.643 | 18.4 | 10 seasons · ended age 34 | 3 | 1863 | 426 |
| Chris Warren ⏳ 1998 | RB | 2000 | 0.636 | 14.7 | 9 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 1368 | 176 |
| Brandon Jacobs | RB | 2013 | 0.620 | 13.8 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 1046 | 51 |
| John David Crow ⏳ 1966 | RB | 1968 | 0.617 | 15.4 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 1410 | 220 |
| Willis McGahee | RB | 2013 | 0.615 | 13.1 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 1566 | 197 |
| Ottis Anderson ⏳ 1986 | RB | 1992 | 0.609 | 15.1 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 4 | 1931 | 447 |
| James Wilder ⏳ 1988 | RB | 1990 | 0.608 | 17.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 1396 | 95 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 398.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.613
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 199 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 191. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 531 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 228 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 398 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(398 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 398 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 398 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.