Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | LAC | 10 | 23 | 11 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.5 |
| 2018 | LAC | 16 | 66 | 43 | 664 | 10 | 7 | 28 | 178.2 |
| 2019 | LAC | 15 | 90 | 49 | 1001 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 161.3 |
| 2020 | LAC | 15 | 85 | 48 | 756 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 153.7 |
| 2021 | LAC | 16 | 129 | 76 | 1146 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 244.6 |
| 2022 | LAC | 13 | 93 | 63 | 895 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 176.5 |
| 2023 | LAC | 3 | 26 | 19 | 249 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 50.2 |
| 2024 | 2TM | 18 | 34 | 21 | 298 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 56.8 |
| 2024 | NYJ | 9 | 21 | 12 | 166 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28.6 |
| 2024 | PIT | 9 | 13 | 9 | 132 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28.2 |
| Career | — | 124 | 580 | 351 | 5402 | 33 | 10 | 34 | 1098.6 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | WR | 2003 | 0.718 | 13.2 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 1109 | 21 |
| Joey Galloway | WR | 2010 | 0.690 | 13.8 | 14 seasons · ended age 39 | 8 | 1770 | 809 |
| Dwayne Bowe | WR | 2015 | 0.654 | 13.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 1335 | 9 |
| Herman Moore | WR | 2002 | 0.649 | 14.3 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 1388 | 74 |
| Chris Chambers | WR | 2010 | 0.645 | 11.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 1368 | 171 |
| Amani Toomer | WR | 2008 | 0.625 | 10.8 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 4 | 1499 | 440 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | WR | 2009 | 0.621 | 11.4 | 14 seasons · ended age 36 | 6 | 1840 | 811 |
| Mike Wallace | WR | 2018 | 0.608 | 12.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 1517 | 137 |
| Cliff Branch ⏳ 1978 | WR | 1985 | 0.605 | 11.4 | 12 seasons · ended age 36 | 6 | 1267 | 507 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | WR | 2021 | 0.601 | 14.4 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 4 | 1797 | 606 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 248.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.616
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 282 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 281. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 537 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 626 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 354 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(354 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 354 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.700 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2025 season entirely (last played 2024) |
| = Final production score | 248 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.