Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ATL | 5 | 61 | 105 | 58.1 | 775 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 40.1 |
| 2025 | ATL | 9 | 166 | 276 | 60.1 | 1982 | 9 | 3 | 21 | 70 | 1 | 114.3 |
| Career | — | 14 | 227 | 381 | 59.6 | 2757 | 12 | 6 | 28 | 81 | 2 | 154.4 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter washed out | QB | 2004 | 0.859 | 14.1 | 4 seasons · ended age 27 | 2 | 473 | 282 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | QB | 2015 | 0.751 | 12.7 | 6 seasons · ended age 32 | 3 | 486 | 184 |
| Trent Edwards washed out | QB | 2012 | 0.724 | 10.8 | 4 seasons · ended age 27 | 2 | 369 | 104 |
| John Brodie ⏳ 1961 | QB | 1973 | 0.711 | 16.7 | 14 seasons · ended age 37 | 11 | 2321 | 1595 |
| Steve Walsh ⏳ 1991 washed out | QB | 1999 | 0.707 | 12.1 | 4 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 437 | 132 |
| Josh McCown | QB | 2020 | 0.696 | 15.6 | 10 seasons · ended age 39 | 8 | 1177 | 768 |
| David Garrard | QB | 2013 | 0.693 | 18.4 | 8 seasons · ended age 32 | 7 | 1308 | 1035 |
| Bill Munson ⏳ 1965 | QB | 1979 | 0.692 | 12.8 | 8 seasons · ended age 34 | 6 | 826 | 529 |
| Colt McCoy | QB | 2022 | 0.688 | 13.6 | 6 seasons · ended age 36 | 4 | 449 | 155 |
| Chris Redman | QB | 2011 | 0.685 | 11.3 | 4 seasons · ended age 34 | 3 | 198 | 123 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 154.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.696
Comp pool washed-out rate: 40% (8/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 586 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 462. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,405 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 694 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 644 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.560 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.438 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(361 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 361 × 0.438) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.975 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 9 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 injury-rate dampening (rate_ratio=1.54) |
| = Final production score | 154 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.