Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | NYJ | 14 | 147 | 639 | 4 | 55 | 36 | 325 | 0 | 154.4 |
| 2022 | NYJ | 16 | 114 | 402 | 3 | 54 | 41 | 288 | 0 | 124.0 |
| 2023 | 2TM | 15 | 30 | 187 | 0 | 31 | 24 | 101 | 1 | 58.8 |
| 2023 | NYJ | 9 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 20 | 15 | 68 | 0 | 25.6 |
| 2023 | ARI | 6 | 22 | 149 | 0 | 11 | 9 | 33 | 1 | 33.2 |
| 2024 | ARI | 3 | 35 | 131 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 57 | 0 | 35.8 |
| 2025 | ARI | 12 | 85 | 315 | 1 | 42 | 30 | 246 | 0 | 92.1 |
| Career | — | 75 | 441 | 1861 | 9 | 224 | 166 | 1118 | 2 | 523.9 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bell washed out | RB | 2010 | 0.819 | 8.1 | 4 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 274 | 23 |
| Alex Collins washed out | RB | 2021 | 0.769 | 9.8 | 4 seasons · ended age 27 | 0 | 389 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | RB | 2011 | 0.761 | 9.2 | 12 seasons · ended age 35 | 8 | 1209 | 694 |
| Javorius Allen washed out | RB | 2019 | 0.748 | 8.3 | 5 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 399 | 99 |
| Matt Breida washed out | RB | 2023 | 0.725 | 8.4 | 7 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 550 | 104 |
| Wray Carlton ⏳ 1965 washed out | RB | 1967 | 0.720 | 8.4 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 654 | 203 |
| Mewelde Moore | RB | 2012 | 0.718 | 8.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 4 | 709 | 174 |
| Derrick Fenner ⏳ 1993 washed out | RB | 1997 | 0.697 | 8.2 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 760 | 278 |
| Devontae Booker washed out | RB | 2021 | 0.696 | 9.0 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 541 | 222 |
| Donald Brown washed out | RB | 2015 | 0.694 | 8.7 | 7 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 616 | 111 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 95.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.708
Comp pool washed-out rate: 85% (17/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 242 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 191. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 316 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 424 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 242 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.410 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(99 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 99 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.960 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 13 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 injury-rate dampening (rate_ratio=1.00) |
| = Final production score | 95 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.