Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | DET | 10 | 201 | 377 | 53.3 | 2267 | 13 | 20 | 20 | 108 | 2 | 117.5 |
| 2010 | DET | 3 | 57 | 96 | 59.4 | 535 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 46.5 |
| 2011 | DET | 16 | 421 | 663 | 63.5 | 5038 | 41 | 16 | 22 | 78 | 0 | 331.3 |
| 2012 | DET | 16 | 435 | 727 | 59.8 | 4967 | 20 | 17 | 35 | 126 | 4 | 269.3 |
| 2013 | DET | 16 | 371 | 634 | 58.5 | 4650 | 29 | 19 | 37 | 69 | 2 | 258.9 |
| 2014 | DET | 16 | 363 | 602 | 60.3 | 4257 | 22 | 12 | 43 | 93 | 2 | 239.6 |
| 2015 | DET | 16 | 398 | 592 | 67.2 | 4262 | 32 | 13 | 44 | 159 | 1 | 286.4 |
| 2016 | DET | 16 | 388 | 594 | 65.3 | 4327 | 24 | 10 | 37 | 207 | 2 | 275.8 |
| 2017 | DET | 16 | 371 | 565 | 65.7 | 4446 | 29 | 10 | 29 | 98 | 0 | 259.6 |
| 2018 | DET | 16 | 367 | 555 | 66.1 | 3777 | 21 | 11 | 25 | 71 | 0 | 208.2 |
| 2019 | DET | 8 | 187 | 291 | 64.3 | 2499 | 19 | 5 | 20 | 66 | 0 | 162.6 |
| 2020 | DET | 16 | 339 | 528 | 64.2 | 4084 | 26 | 10 | 29 | 112 | 0 | 254.6 |
| 2021 | LAR | 17 | 404 | 601 | 67.2 | 4886 | 41 | 17 | 32 | 43 | 0 | 319.7 |
| 2022 | LAR | 9 | 206 | 303 | 68.0 | 2087 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 104.4 |
| 2023 | LAR | 15 | 326 | 521 | 62.6 | 3965 | 24 | 11 | 21 | 65 | 0 | 239.1 |
| 2024 | LAR | 16 | 340 | 517 | 65.8 | 3762 | 20 | 8 | 30 | 41 | 0 | 206.6 |
| 2025 | LAR | 16 | 363 | 557 | 65.2 | 4448 | 42 | 8 | 28 | -2 | 0 | 315.7 |
| Career | — | 238 | 5537 | 8723 | 63.5 | 64257 | 419 | 196 | 469 | 1354 | 15 | 3895.8 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | QB | 2021 | 0.721 | 18.5 | 17 seasons · ended age 39 | 2 | 4082 | 478 |
| John Elway ⏳ 1997 | QB | 1998 | 0.610 | 20.0 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 4088 | 230 |
| Drew Brees | QB | 2020 | 0.610 | 23.6 | 19 seasons · ended age 41 | 4 | 5277 | 862 |
| Dan Marino ⏳ 1998 | QB | 1999 | 0.589 | 21.8 | 17 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 4224 | 133 |
| Brett Favre | QB | 2010 | 0.584 | 23.0 | 19 seasons · ended age 41 | 4 | 5135 | 812 |
| Eli Manning | QB | 2019 | 0.537 | 16.8 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 3331 | 48 |
| Fran Tarkenton ⏳ 1977 | QB | 1978 | 0.492 | 19.7 | 18 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 4047 | 223 |
| Peyton Manning | QB | 2015 | 0.479 | 22.1 | 17 seasons · ended age 39 | 2 | 5062 | 390 |
| Y.A. Tittle ⏳ 1963 | QB | 1964 | 0.459 | 20.0 | 17 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 2715 | 99 |
| Johnny Unitas ⏳ 1971 | QB | 1972 | 0.378 | 21.8 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 3028 | 59 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 487.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 10
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.546
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/10)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 358 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 358. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 574 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,628 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 487 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(487 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 487 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 487 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.