Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | DEN | 16 | 33 | 22 | 377 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 64.7 |
| 2024 | DEN | 17 | 52 | 39 | 503 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 127.5 |
| 2025 | DEN | 15 | 51 | 37 | 322 | 1 | 12 | 78 | 85.0 |
| Career | — | 48 | 136 | 98 | 1202 | 8 | 34 | 150 | 277.2 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Az-Zahir Hakim | WR | 2006 | 0.874 | 7.4 | 9 seasons · ended age 29 | 6 | 696 | 390 |
| Keary Colbert washed out | WR | 2011 | 0.846 | 5.7 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 4 | 275 | 100 |
| Donte' Stallworth | WR | 2012 | 0.835 | 10.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 7 | 823 | 588 |
| Justin Hunter washed out | WR | 2018 | 0.830 | 5.9 | 6 seasons · ended age 27 | 4 | 265 | 109 |
| Reidel Anthony washed out | WR | 2001 | 0.824 | 5.8 | 5 seasons · ended age 25 | 2 | 322 | 67 |
| Louis Murphy | WR | 2017 | 0.822 | 6.4 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 6 | 442 | 214 |
| Andre Roberts | WR | 2022 | 0.820 | 7.5 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 10 | 594 | 392 |
| Antonio Bryant washed out | WR | 2009 | 0.815 | 11.7 | 7 seasons · ended age 28 | 4 | 924 | 572 |
| Josh Reed | WR | 2009 | 0.808 | 7.0 | 8 seasons · ended age 29 | 6 | 605 | 377 |
| Reggie Williams washed out | WR | 2008 | 0.801 | 8.0 | 5 seasons · ended age 25 | 2 | 463 | 221 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 92.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.806
Comp pool washed-out rate: 75% (15/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 232 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 226. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 600 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 499 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 232 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.396 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(92 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 92 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 92 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.