Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | BAL | 14 | 71 | 46 | 584 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 146.4 |
| 2020 | BAL | 16 | 100 | 58 | 769 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 183.0 |
| 2021 | BAL | 16 | 146 | 91 | 1008 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 222.3 |
| 2022 | ARI | 12 | 107 | 67 | 709 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 154.0 |
| 2023 | ARI | 14 | 101 | 51 | 574 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 134.7 |
| 2024 | KAN | 2 | 15 | 9 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.1 |
| 2025 | KAN | 16 | 74 | 49 | 587 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 135.7 |
| Career | — | 90 | 614 | 371 | 4322 | 33 | 5 | 30 | 994.2 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Williams | WR | 2011 | 0.781 | 13.0 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 1048 | 188 |
| Terry Glenn | WR | 2007 | 0.706 | 12.4 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 1313 | 506 |
| Antonio Freeman | WR | 2003 | 0.687 | 13.2 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 3 | 1109 | 229 |
| Steve Johnson washed out | WR | 2016 | 0.684 | 12.6 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 934 | 102 |
| Lee Evans | WR | 2011 | 0.677 | 11.2 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 1071 | 114 |
| Santonio Holmes | WR | 2014 | 0.675 | 11.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 1065 | 77 |
| Michael Crabtree | WR | 2019 | 0.663 | 12.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 3 | 1520 | 469 |
| Mike Wallace | WR | 2018 | 0.653 | 12.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 3 | 1517 | 387 |
| Torrey Smith | WR | 2018 | 0.647 | 10.8 | 8 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 961 | 44 |
| Plaxico Burress | WR | 2013 | 0.643 | 13.2 | 10 seasons · ended age 34 | 4 | 1428 | 598 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 400.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.658
Comp pool washed-out rate: 5% (1/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 399 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 358. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 636 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 954 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 453 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.883 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(400 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 400 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 400 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.