Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | TEN | 8 | 31 | 61 | 50.8 | 276 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 123 | 1 | 17.3 |
| 2023 | TEN | 3 | 4 | 5 | 80.0 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 2024 | GNB | 7 | 40 | 54 | 74.1 | 550 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 138 | 1 | 51.8 |
| 2025 | GNB | 4 | 30 | 35 | 85.7 | 422 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 123 | 2 | 49.2 |
| Career | — | 22 | 105 | 155 | 67.7 | 1322 | 6 | 3 | 74 | 405 | 4 | 121.4 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler washed out | QB | 2018 | 0.747 | 11.4 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 394 | 119 |
| Seneca Wallace | QB | 2013 | 0.741 | 10.2 | 7 seasons · ended age 31 | 5 | 356 | 246 |
| Anthony Wright washed out | QB | 2008 | 0.732 | 11.7 | 4 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 234 | 171 |
| Adrian Burk ⏳ 1954 washed out | QB | 1955 | 0.709 | 11.3 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 502 | 115 |
| Matt Schaub | QB | 2020 | 0.651 | 17.1 | 11 seasons · ended age 38 | 7 | 1465 | 1131 |
| Luke McCown washed out | QB | 2016 | 0.650 | 9.2 | 3 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 120 | 9 |
| Bruce Gradkowski washed out | QB | 2016 | 0.644 | 10.2 | 4 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 253 | 58 |
| Kevin Kolb washed out | QB | 2013 | 0.630 | 16.1 | 4 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 282 | 203 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | QB | 2015 | 0.623 | 17.9 | 16 seasons · ended age 40 | 13 | 2382 | 1792 |
| Trent Edwards washed out | QB | 2012 | 0.615 | 10.8 | 4 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 369 | 30 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 113.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.636
Comp pool washed-out rate: 55% (11/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 424 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 389. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,190 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 557 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 451 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.490 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.531 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(221 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 221 × 0.531) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.964 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 4 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 injury-rate dampening (rate_ratio=1.48) |
| = Final production score | 113 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.