Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | PHI | 16 | 22 | 16 | 226 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 44.6 |
| 2019 | 2TM | 16 | 23 | 10 | 125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22.5 |
| 2019 | PHI | 12 | 22 | 10 | 125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22.5 |
| 2019 | MIA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2020 | MIA | 16 | 25 | 16 | 176 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 37.6 |
| 2021 | MIA | 17 | 28 | 14 | 223 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 60.3 |
| 2022 | LVR | 17 | 94 | 57 | 690 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 154.0 |
| 2023 | ATL | 13 | 30 | 18 | 251 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43.1 |
| 2024 | BUF | 17 | 50 | 31 | 378 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 98.8 |
| 2025 | NWE | 15 | 65 | 46 | 550 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 111.4 |
| Career | — | 143 | 360 | 218 | 2744 | 17 | 5 | 44 | 594.8 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Goodwin | WR | 2023 | 0.857 | 7.7 | 9 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 572 | 14 |
| David Patten | WR | 2008 | 0.777 | 8.0 | 11 seasons · ended age 34 | 2 | 730 | 159 |
| Frank Lewis ⏳ 1979 | WR | 1983 | 0.763 | 8.3 | 11 seasons · ended age 36 | 4 | 923 | 368 |
| Devin Hester | WR | 2016 | 0.761 | 8.1 | 11 seasons · ended age 34 | 2 | 616 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | WR | 2008 | 0.761 | 8.6 | 10 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 723 | 113 |
| Brandon Stokley | WR | 2013 | 0.744 | 9.6 | 13 seasons · ended age 37 | 4 | 938 | 242 |
| Mike Sherrard ⏳ 1995 | WR | 1996 | 0.736 | 7.7 | 8 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 563 | 30 |
| Charlie Joiner ⏳ 1979 | WR | 1986 | 0.724 | 9.5 | 16 seasons · ended age 39 | 7 | 1658 | 737 |
| Billy Johnson ⏳ 1984 | WR | 1988 | 0.723 | 8.3 | 8 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 659 | 126 |
| Haven Moses ⏳ 1978 | WR | 1981 | 0.697 | 6.9 | 12 seasons · ended age 35 | 3 | 1001 | 249 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 184.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.706
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 184 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 172. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 278 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 476 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 184 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(184 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 184 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 184 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.