Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | NOR | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2020 | NOR | 3 | 5 | 3 | 46 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13.6 |
| 2021 | NOR | 10 | 18 | 13 | 249 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 49.9 |
| 2022 | NWE | 6 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 2023 | DEN | 17 | 19 | 13 | 162 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 47.2 |
| 2024 | DEN | 17 | 45 | 31 | 293 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 62.3 |
| 2025 | 2TM | 5 | 11 | 4 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 2025 | NYG | 3 | 10 | 4 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 2025 | DEN | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Career | — | 68 | 114 | 70 | 880 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 196.0 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Lewis | WR | 2010 | 0.904 | 5.1 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 3 | 345 | 92 |
| Brice Butler washed out | WR | 2018 | 0.887 | 4.5 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 230 | 16 |
| Kelley Washington | WR | 2010 | 0.885 | 5.3 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 4 | 275 | 99 |
| Marcus Johnson washed out | WR | 2022 | 0.881 | 5.3 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 163 | 19 |
| Derek Hagan washed out | WR | 2014 | 0.868 | 4.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 311 | 82 |
| Jaron Brown washed out | WR | 2020 | 0.866 | 5.3 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 331 | 98 |
| Tim Carter washed out | WR | 2009 | 0.854 | 4.3 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 181 | 23 |
| Robert Ferguson washed out | WR | 2008 | 0.844 | 5.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 336 | 72 |
| Jakeem Grant washed out | WR | 2023 | 0.840 | 5.3 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 257 | 119 |
| Dante Hall | WR | 2008 | 0.832 | 4.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 3 | 336 | 79 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 46.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.835
Comp pool washed-out rate: 70% (14/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 90 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 76. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 277 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 251 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 90 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.533 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(48 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 48 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.965 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 7 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 injury-rate dampening (rate_ratio=1.04) |
| = Final production score | 46 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.