Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | MIN | 9 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 2017 | MIN | 16 | 35 | 20 | 200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38.0 |
| 2018 | MIN | 15 | 53 | 35 | 302 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 71.2 |
| 2019 | MIN | 13 | 16 | 9 | 184 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 33.4 |
| 2020 | ATL | 5 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22.9 |
| 2021 | JAX | 12 | 51 | 33 | 434 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 82.4 |
| 2022 | SEA | 6 | 10 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.2 |
| 2023 | BAL | 5 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 2024 | IND | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | IND | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Career | — | 88 | 178 | 111 | 1242 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 263.2 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Howard | WR | 2002 | 0.836 | 4.1 | 8 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 229 | 24 |
| Dwayne Harris | WR | 2020 | 0.762 | 3.1 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 192 | 10 |
| Brad Smith | WR | 2014 | 0.751 | 3.4 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 327 | 2 |
| Troy Walters | WR | 2007 | 0.740 | 3.5 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 220 | 22 |
| Karl Williams | WR | 2004 | 0.737 | 3.5 | 9 seasons · ended age 33 | 3 | 282 | 53 |
| Kelley Washington | WR | 2010 | 0.725 | 5.3 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 275 | 32 |
| Jacoby Jones | WR | 2015 | 0.721 | 6.5 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 497 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | WR | 2011 | 0.721 | 8.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 414 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | WR | 2007 | 0.709 | 6.3 | 9 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 495 | 51 |
| Alvis Whitted | WR | 2006 | 0.689 | 3.9 | 8 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 171 | 81 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 47.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.688
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 55 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 54. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 153 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 197 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 55 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(55 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 55 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.850 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 6 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 heavy-injury floor applied |
| = Final production score | 47 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.