Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | LAR | 10 | 35 | 139 | 0 | 12 | 9 | 76 | 0 | 30.5 |
| 2023 | LAR | 12 | 228 | 1144 | 12 | 48 | 32 | 206 | 3 | 251.0 |
| 2024 | LAR | 16 | 316 | 1299 | 14 | 40 | 34 | 182 | 2 | 268.1 |
| 2025 | LAR | 17 | 259 | 1252 | 10 | 50 | 36 | 281 | 3 | 263.3 |
| Career | — | 55 | 838 | 3834 | 36 | 150 | 111 | 745 | 8 | 812.9 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | RB | 2020 | 0.874 | 18.3 | 16 seasons · ended age 37 | 12 | 3005 | 1691 |
| Devonta Freeman washed out | RB | 2021 | 0.803 | 17.1 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 1226 | 353 |
| Clinton Portis | RB | 2010 | 0.775 | 17.7 | 9 seasons · ended age 29 | 4 | 1819 | 618 |
| Matt Forte | RB | 2017 | 0.748 | 19.6 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 7 | 2392 | 1408 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | RB | 2014 | 0.746 | 18.7 | 9 seasons · ended age 29 | 4 | 1912 | 563 |
| Darren McFadden | RB | 2017 | 0.737 | 17.1 | 8 seasons · ended age 28 | 3 | 1167 | 382 |
| Lenny Moore ⏳ 1959 | RB | 1966 | 0.736 | 18.4 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 7 | 1828 | 942 |
| Ahman Green | RB | 2009 | 0.708 | 19.1 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 7 | 1805 | 914 |
| Adrian Peterson | RB | 2021 | 0.699 | 19.2 | 13 seasons · ended age 36 | 9 | 2738 | 1393 |
| Walter Payton ⏳ 1979 | RB | 1987 | 0.698 | 18.6 | 13 seasons · ended age 33 | 8 | 2986 | 1488 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 1,160.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.716
Comp pool washed-out rate: 15% (3/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 908 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 950. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,677 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,570 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,370 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.847 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(1,160 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 1,160 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 1,160 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.