Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | ARI | 16 | 349 | 542 | 64.4 | 3722 | 20 | 12 | 93 | 544 | 4 | 273.3 |
| 2020 | ARI | 16 | 375 | 558 | 67.2 | 3971 | 26 | 12 | 133 | 819 | 11 | 368.7 |
| 2021 | ARI | 14 | 333 | 481 | 69.2 | 3787 | 24 | 10 | 88 | 423 | 5 | 273.8 |
| 2022 | ARI | 11 | 259 | 390 | 66.4 | 2368 | 14 | 7 | 67 | 418 | 3 | 180.5 |
| 2023 | ARI | 8 | 176 | 268 | 65.7 | 1799 | 10 | 5 | 44 | 244 | 3 | 130.4 |
| 2024 | ARI | 17 | 372 | 541 | 68.8 | 3851 | 21 | 11 | 78 | 572 | 5 | 287.2 |
| 2025 | ARI | 5 | 110 | 161 | 68.3 | 962 | 6 | 3 | 29 | 173 | 1 | 77.8 |
| Career | — | 87 | 1974 | 2941 | 67.1 | 20460 | 121 | 60 | 532 | 3193 | 32 | 1591.7 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Marino ⏳ 1989 | QB | 1999 | 0.738 | 21.8 | 17 seasons · ended age 38 | 10 | 4224 | 1784 |
| Johnny Unitas ⏳ 1962 | QB | 1972 | 0.734 | 21.8 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 9 | 3028 | 1299 |
| Steve McNair | QB | 2007 | 0.666 | 21.6 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 6 | 2785 | 1070 |
| Matt Ryan | QB | 2022 | 0.642 | 18.5 | 15 seasons · ended age 37 | 9 | 3815 | 1882 |
| Fran Tarkenton ⏳ 1968 | QB | 1978 | 0.636 | 19.7 | 18 seasons · ended age 38 | 10 | 4047 | 1658 |
| John Elway ⏳ 1988 | QB | 1998 | 0.623 | 20.0 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 10 | 4088 | 2136 |
| Steve Grogan ⏳ 1981 | QB | 1990 | 0.618 | 18.2 | 14 seasons · ended age 36 | 7 | 2291 | 628 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | QB | 2021 | 0.609 | 18.5 | 17 seasons · ended age 39 | 10 | 4082 | 1995 |
| Cam Newton | QB | 2021 | 0.603 | 24.3 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 3 | 3056 | 599 |
| Brett Favre ⏳ 1997 | QB | 2010 | 0.598 | 23.0 | 19 seasons · ended age 41 | 13 | 5135 | 2468 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 1,387.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.603
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 1,220 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 1,332. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,907 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 2,132 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,632 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(1,632 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 1,632 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.850 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 5 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 heavy-injury floor applied |
| = Final production score | 1,387 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.